Moneyline
WAS MLodds down −263
Won 70%
The Commanders win the game.
Confidence70%
Model60.0%
SportsbooksOdds67.6%
Edge−7.6
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| WAS | 3 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 27 |
EAGLES 40%
Pre-game win chance
60% COMMANDERS
WAS by 3 · 51 points
Updated Nov 1, 11:45 PM ET
Eagles vs Commanders picks
3 picks · Commanders by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
PHI +11.5odds up −244
Lost 79%
The Eagles win, or lose by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model74.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+5.8
TotalBest pick
Over 34.5−250
Won 77%
The two teams score 35 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model77.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.4%
Edge+9.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Eagles017701724
Commanders017371727
Most likely final scoresPHI 24–27 WAS 0.8%PHI 21–24 WAS 0.7%PHI 17–20 WAS 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
EaglesCommanders
Offense
310▼ 268
Total yards
▼ 339352
209▼ 177
Passing yards
▼ 204221
101▼ 91
Rushing yards
▲ 135131
19▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1621
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Field goals made
▲ 42
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▲ 5
Sacks allowed
= 22
52▼ 30
Penalty yards
▲ 7056
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 263.5
Proj. 310
72%
Won · 268
Passing yards
Over 167.5
Proj. 209
72%
Won · 177
Rushing yards
Over 72.5
Proj. 101
72%
Won · 91
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
69%
Won · 17
Total yards
Over 305.5
Proj. 352
72%
Won · 339
Passing yards
Over 179.5
Proj. 221
72%
Won · 204
Rushing yards
Over 102.5
Proj. 131
72%
Won · 135
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
74%
Lost · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Eagles
QB
Tanner McKee22/35 · 209 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
209pass yds
RB
Dameon Pierce17 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
54rush yds
WR/TE
Makai Lemon4 rec · 39 yds · 0.3 TD
39rec yds
WR/TE
Dallas Goedert4 rec · 37 yds · 0.0 TD
37rec yds
Commanders
QB
Jayden Daniels17/28 · 208 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.0 INT
208pass yds
RB
Rachaad White7 carries · 29 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec
29rush yds
WR/TE
Stefon Diggs4 rec · 46 yds · 0.8 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Chigoziem Okonkwo4 rec · 41 yds · 0.0 TD
41rec yds
Road form. The Eagles are 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 6.0 points a game.
Home form. The Commanders are 1-1-1 at home, scoring 24.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at WAS −3.5 and is now WAS −5.5, a 2-point move toward the Commanders.
Rest. The Eagles come in on 6 days’ rest, the Commanders on 13.
Division game. Two NFC East rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Philadelphia EaglesWashington Commanders
Philadelphia EaglesWashington Commanders
2-5Record1-4-1
1-2 roadRoad / home1-1-1 home
L5StreakL1
6 daysRest13 days
18.1Points per game22.0
25.0Points allowed28.7
−48
Point differentialseason to date
−40
4.5Yards per play5.1
177Passing yards / game200
88Rushing yards / game125
38%3rd-down conversion31%
74%Red-zone touchdowns50%
3Takeaways8
8Sacks11
6Turnovers2
4.6Yards per play5.1
201Passing yards / game190
73Rushing yards / game128
45%3rd-down conversion23%
71%Red-zone touchdowns33%
1Takeaways7
4Sacks4
5Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Eagles’ road games with the Commanders’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Eagles
2-5
LLLLL
Wk 7Oct 26vs DAL
Cowboys38Eagles21
Cowboys moneyline −222Eagles moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs CAR
Panthers25Eagles14
Panthers moneyline −156Eagles moneyline +132
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ JAX
Eagles17Jaguars19
Eagles moneyline +310Jaguars moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs LAR
Rams24Eagles20
Rams moneyline −200Eagles moneyline +162
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 28@ CHI
Eagles7Bears27
Eagles moneyline −200Bears moneyline +162
LFINAL
Commanders
1-4-1
LWLTL
Wk 6Oct 19@ SF
Commanders1749ers23
Commanders moneyline +31049ers moneyline −385
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs NYG
Giants27Commanders27
Giants moneyline +146Commanders moneyline −182
TF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4vs IND
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs SEA
Seahawks31Commanders33
Seahawks moneyline −400Commanders moneyline +310
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ DAL
Commanders20Cowboys37
Commanders moneyline +170Cowboys moneyline −213
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
EAGLES
3
Wins
Avg. points31.6 – 24.6
Avg. total56.2 pts
Over closing total5 of 5
2
COMMANDERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2026 · Wk 1Lincoln Financial Field
Commanders22Eagles24
Commanders moneyline +210Eagles moneyline −270
2025 · Wk 18Lincoln Financial Field
Commanders24Eagles17
Commanders moneyline +145Eagles moneyline −185
2025 · Wk 16Northwest Stadium
Eagles29Commanders18
Eagles moneyline −385Commanders moneyline +270
2024 · Conf. Champ.Lincoln Financial Field
Commanders23Eagles55
Commanders moneyline +220Eagles moneyline −286
2024 · Wk 16Northwest Stadium
Eagles33Commanders36
Eagles moneyline −217Commanders moneyline +170
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (PHI)+220+220
Moneyline (WAS)−270−270
Spread (WAS)−3.5down −5.5
Total40.540.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Washington Commanders beat the Philadelphia Eagles 27–10 in NFL Week 8 of the 2026 season (Sunday Night Football on NBC), on Sunday, November 1 at 8:20 PM ET, at Northwest Stadium, Landover. The moneyline had the Eagles at +220 and the Commanders at −270.
Our model predicted a final score of Eagles 24, Commanders 27. Its picks: the Commanders to win (−263), won; the Eagles +11.5 (−244), lost; over 34.5 points (−250), won. The best pick was over 34.5 points, at 77% confidence.