MoneylineBest pick
JAX MLodds down −500
Won 82%
The Jaguars win the game.
Confidence82%
Model72.2%
SportsbooksOdds78.7%
Edge−6.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 1, 4:17 PM ET
Colts vs Jaguars picks
3 picks · Jaguars by 3 · 51 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
IND +14.5odds up −189
Lost 75%
The Colts win, or lose by 14 points or fewer.
Confidence75%
Model68.2%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+0.1
Total
Over 40.5odds up −217
Won 76%
The two teams score 41 or more points between them.
Confidence76%
Model68.5%
SportsbooksOdds67.7%
Edge+0.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Colts77731424
Jaguars737101027
Most likely final scoresIND 24–27 JAX 0.9%IND 20–23 JAX 0.8%IND 17–24 JAX 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
ColtsJaguars
Offense
315▼ 243
Total yards
▲ 366347
219▼ 134
Passing yards
▼ 183230
96▲ 109
Rushing yards
▲ 183117
19▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1820
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▲ 63
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▲ 3
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▲ 4
Sacks allowed
▲ 32
52▲ 54
Penalty yards
▲ 6554
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 268.5
Proj. 315
72%
Lost · 243
Passing yards
Over 177.5
Proj. 219
72%
Lost · 134
Rushing yards
Over 67.5
Proj. 96
72%
Won · 109
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
69%
Won · 17
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 347
72%
Won · 366
Passing yards
Over 188.5
Proj. 230
72%
Lost · 183
Rushing yards
Over 88.5
Proj. 117
72%
Won · 183
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
70%
Won · 18
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Colts
QB
Daniel Jones22/35 · 219 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.9 INT
219pass yds
RB
Jonathan Taylor17 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Josh Downs4 rec · 53 yds · 0.0 TD
53rec yds
WR/TE
Keenan Allen5 rec · 50 yds · 0.7 TD
50rec yds
Jaguars
QB
Trevor Lawrence20/31 · 230 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
230pass yds
RB
Bhayshul Tuten15 carries · 67 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
67rush yds
WR/TE
Parker Washington4 rec · 68 yds · 0.6 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Brenton Strange4 rec · 46 yds · 0.1 TD
46rec yds
Road form. The Colts are 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 1.0 points a game.
Home form. The Jaguars are 3-1 at home, scoring 29.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at JAX −7.5 and is now JAX −10.5, a 3-point move toward the Jaguars.
Rest. The Colts come in on 7 days’ rest, the Jaguars on 14.
Division game. Two AFC South rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars
Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars
2-5Record4-2
1-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home
L3StreakL1
7 daysRest14 days
22.0Points per game25.7
25.7Points allowed17.3
−26
Point differentialseason to date
+50
4.5Yards per play5.8
180Passing yards / game235
118Rushing yards / game113
40%3rd-down conversion48%
60%Red-zone touchdowns67%
3Takeaways9
13Sacks11
12Turnovers4
4.4Yards per play5.9
167Passing yards / game256
117Rushing yards / game118
38%3rd-down conversion50%
60%Red-zone touchdowns71%
1Takeaways6
8Sacks9
4Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Colts’ road games with the Jaguars’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Colts
2-5
WWLLL
Wk 7Oct 25@ MIN
Colts10Vikings16
Colts moneyline +270Vikings moneyline −345
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs TEN
Titans26Colts20
Titans moneyline +240Colts moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ PIT
Colts22Steelers34
Colts moneyline +131Steelers moneyline −161
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ WAS
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs HOU
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
WFINAL
Jaguars
4-2
LWWWL
Wk 6Oct 18vs HOU
Texans34Jaguars31
Texans moneyline +122Jaguars moneyline −145
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs PHI
Eagles17Jaguars19
Eagles moneyline +310Jaguars moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CIN
Jaguars22Bengals17
Jaguars moneyline +116Bengals moneyline −149
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs NE
Patriots6Jaguars35
Patriots moneyline +132Jaguars moneyline −156
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ DEN
Jaguars13Broncos20
Jaguars moneyline +125Broncos moneyline −152
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameHead-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
COLTS
1
Wins
Avg. points23.2 – 31.2
Avg. total54.4 pts
Over closing total4 of 5
4
JAGUARS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 17Lucas Oil Stadium
Jaguars23Colts17
Jaguars moneyline −227Colts moneyline +180
2025 · Wk 14EverBank Stadium
Colts19Jaguars36
Colts moneyline −147Jaguars moneyline +120
2024 · Wk 18Lucas Oil Stadium
Jaguars23Colts26
Jaguars moneyline +155Colts moneyline −192
2024 · Wk 5EverBank Stadium
Colts34Jaguars37
Colts moneyline +155Jaguars moneyline −200
2023 · Wk 6EverBank Stadium
Colts20Jaguars37
Colts moneyline +170Jaguars moneyline −192
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (IND)+390+390
Moneyline (JAX)−526−526
Spread (JAX)−7.5down −10.5
Total46.5down 46
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts 42–7 in NFL Week 8 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 1 at 1:00 PM ET, at EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville. The moneyline had the Colts at +390 and the Jaguars at −526.
Our model predicted a final score of Colts 24, Jaguars 27. Its picks: the Jaguars to win (−500), won; the Colts +14.5 (−189), lost; over 40.5 points (−217), won. The best pick was the Jaguars to win, at 82% confidence.