Air Force vs Army Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
AF	0	17	0	7	24
ARMY	0	7	14	0	21

Air Force vs Army picks

3 picks · Army by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

ARMY MLodds down −189 Lost 85%

Army wins the game.

Confidence85%

Model63.6% SportsbooksOdds59.7% Edge+3.9

SpreadBest pick

ARMY +3.5odds down −294 Won 77%

Army wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model72.8% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+4.1

Total

Over 39.5odds up −185 Won 74%

The two teams score 40 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model76.0% SportsbooksOdds66.8% Edge+9.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Air Force77701421

Army77771428

Most likely final scoresAF 21–28 ARMY 0.7%AF 28–31 ARMY 0.7%AF 24–27 ARMY 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Air ForceArmy

Offense

370▼ 344 Total yards ▼ 220360

135▼ 84 Passing yards ▼ 38137

235▲ 260 Rushing yards ▼ 182223

21▼ 18 First downs ▼ 1518

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▼ 34

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns = 33

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

45▼ 5 Penalty yards ▼ 1041

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 297.5 Proj. 370 72% Won · 344

Passing yards Over 77.5 Proj. 135 72% Won · 84

Rushing yards Over 183.5 Proj. 236 72% Won · 260

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74% Won · 18

Total yards Over 287.5 Proj. 360 72% Lost · 220

Passing yards Over 79.5 Proj. 137 72% Lost · 38

Rushing yards Over 171.5 Proj. 224 72% Won · 182

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 73% Won · 15

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Air Force

QB Howard Fisher IV4/9 · 58 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT 58pass yds

RB Owen Allen10 carries · 40 rush yds · 0.3 TD 40rush yds

WR/TE Matt Long3 rec · 26 yds · 0.5 TD 26rec yds

Army

QB Cale Hellums9/16 · 112 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT 112pass yds

RB Godspower Nwawuihe9 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 54rush yds

WR/TE Brady Anderson3 rec · 50 yds · 0.0 TD 50rec yds

WR/TE Samari Howard3 rec · 22 yds · 0.0 TD 22rec yds

Road form. Air Force is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 3.3 points a game.

Home form. Army is 3-1 at home, scoring 39.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ARMY −5.5 and is now ARMY −3.5, a 2-point move toward Air Force.

Rest. Air Force comes in on 7 days’ rest, Army on 8.

Tale of the tape

Air ForceArmy

6-2Record5-3

2-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest8 days

29.3Points per game33.6

21.5Points allowed25.5

+62 Point differentialseason to date +65

58Passing yards / game66

341Rushing yards / game303

52%3rd-down conversion49%

7Takeaways5

0Sacks0

7Turnovers2

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Air Force’s road games with Army’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.