Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
VAN	3	13	3	6	25
MSST	0	0	14	9	23

Vanderbilt vs Mississippi St picks

3 picks · Mississippi St by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

MSST MLodds up −147 Lost 72%

Mississippi St wins the game.

Confidence72%

Model57.6% SportsbooksOdds58.4% Edge−0.8

SpreadBest pick

VAN +8.5−256 Won 76%

Vanderbilt wins, or loses by eight points or fewer.

Confidence76%

Model66.6% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge−2.1

Total

Over 41.5−233 Won 74%

The two teams score 42 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model73.0% SportsbooksOdds67.4% Edge+5.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Vanderbilt77701421

Mississippi St0140141428

Most likely final scoresVAN 21–28 MSST 0.6%VAN 20–23 MSST 0.6%VAN 21–24 MSST 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

VanderbiltMississippi St

Offense

371▼ 328 Total yards ▼ 297391

258▼ 168 Passing yards ▲ 254234

113▲ 160 Rushing yards ▼ 43157

19▲ 20 First downs ▼ 1222

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns ▼ 23

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns = 22

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

0▲ 6 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

64▼ 25 Penalty yards ▼ 3156

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 297.5 Proj. 371 72% Won · 328

Passing yards Over 200.5 Proj. 258 72% Lost · 168

Rushing yards Over 60.5 Proj. 113 72% Won · 160

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74% Won · 20

Total yards Over 317.5 Proj. 391 72% Lost · 297

Passing yards Over 177.5 Proj. 234 72% Won · 254

Rushing yards Over 104.5 Proj. 157 72% Lost · 43

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 70% Lost · 12

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Vanderbilt

QB Jared Curtis22/31 · 254 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 254pass yds

RB Makhilyn Young7 carries · 31 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 31rush yds

WR/TE Junior Sherrill7 rec · 97 yds · 1.0 TD 97rec yds

WR/TE Ja'Cory Thomas3 rec · 47 yds · 0.8 TD 47rec yds

Mississippi St

QB AJ Swann16/18 · 191 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT 191pass yds

RB Fluff Bothwell17 carries · 118 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 118rush yds

WR/TE Anthony Evans III7 rec · 75 yds · 0.5 TD 75rec yds

WR/TE Marquis Johnson3 rec · 38 yds · 0.2 TD 38rec yds

Road form. Vanderbilt is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 15.7 points a game.

Home form. Mississippi St is 2-2 at home, scoring 32.8 points a game there.

Rest. Vanderbilt comes in on 14 days’ rest, Mississippi St on 7.

Streak. Vanderbilt has lost 5 in a row.

Streak. Mississippi St has lost 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

VanderbiltMississippi State

3-5Record4-4

0-3 roadRoad / home2-2 home

L5StreakL4

14 daysRest7 days

22.8Points per game26.6

30.3Points allowed28.1

−60 Point differentialseason to date −12

237Passing yards / game247

106Rushing yards / game162

41%3rd-down conversion40%

7Takeaways7

0Sacks0

14Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Vanderbilt’s road games with Mississippi St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.