Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
VAN	3	7	7	0	17
UK	0	14	10	10	34

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky picks

3 picks · Kentucky by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

UK MLodds down −476 Won 91%

Kentucky wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model67.8% SportsbooksOdds80.2% Edge−12.4

Spread

VAN +19.5−270 Won 84%

Vanderbilt wins, or loses by 19 points or fewer.

Confidence84%

Model76.9% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge+7.0

Total

Over 44.5odds up −238 Won 74%

The two teams score 45 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.3% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge−1.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Vanderbilt0777721

Kentucky07714728

Most likely final scoresVAN 21–28 UK 0.6%VAN 24–31 UK 0.6%VAN 21–24 UK 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

VanderbiltKentucky

Offense

366▼ 262 Total yards ▲ 376370

249▼ 247 Passing yards ▼ 203222

117▼ 15 Rushing yards ▲ 173148

20▼ 15 First downs ▲ 2420

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns = 44

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

Ball security

2= 2 Turnovers ▼ 01

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▲ 75 Penalty yards ▼ 2449

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 292.5 Proj. 366 72% Lost · 262

Passing yards Over 191.5 Proj. 249 72% Won · 247

Rushing yards Over 65.5 Proj. 117 72% Lost · 15

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Lost · 15

Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 370 72% Won · 376

Passing yards Over 164.5 Proj. 222 72% Won · 203

Rushing yards Over 95.5 Proj. 148 72% Won · 173

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Vanderbilt

QB Jared Curtis20/32 · 239 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 1.1 INT 239pass yds

RB Sedrick Alexander9 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 38rush yds

WR/TE Junior Sherrill7 rec · 97 yds · 1.1 TD 97rec yds

WR/TE Ja'Cory Thomas3 rec · 48 yds · 0.7 TD 48rec yds

Kentucky

QB Kenny Minchey21/31 · 221 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 221pass yds

RB CJ Baxter Jr.15 carries · 73 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 2 rec 73rush yds

WR/TE Kenny Darby5 rec · 64 yds · 0.4 TD 64rec yds

WR/TE Willie Rodriguez5 rec · 37 yds · 0.4 TD 37rec yds

Road form. Vanderbilt is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 15.0 points a game.

Home form. Kentucky is 3-1 at home, scoring 35.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UK −11.5 and is now UK −10.5, a 1-point move toward Vanderbilt.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Vanderbilt has lost 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

VanderbiltKentucky

3-4Record6-1

0-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L4StreakW5

7 daysRest7 days

23.6Points per game32.7

29.7Points allowed25.9

−43 Point differentialseason to date +48

235Passing yards / game222

119Rushing yards / game166

39%3rd-down conversion29%

7Takeaways16

0Sacks0

12Turnovers5

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Vanderbilt’s road games with Kentucky’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.