MoneylineBest pick
TXST MLodds down −667
Won 91%
Texas St wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model71.9%
SportsbooksOdds81.1%
Edge−9.2
Utah State vs Texas State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USU | 6 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 17 |
| TXST | 7 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 20 |
UTAH STATE 28%
Pre-game win chance
72% TEXAS ST
TXST by 3 · 57 points
Updated Oct 24, 11:38 PM ET
Utah State vs Texas St picks
3 picks · Texas St by 3 · 57 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
USU +20.5odds up −200
Won 82%
Utah State wins, or loses by 20 points or fewer.
Confidence82%
Model73.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+5.0
Total
Over 51.5odds down −256
Lost 74%
The two teams score 52 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model68.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+0.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Utah State020702027
Texas St7131002030
Most likely final scoresUSU 27–30 TXST 0.6%USU 28–31 TXST 0.5%USU 35–38 TXST 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Utah StateTexas St
Offense
372▼ 285
Total yards
▼ 250488
236▼ 212
Passing yards
▼ 167248
136▼ 73
Rushing yards
▼ 83240
19▲ 20
First downs
▼ 2024
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 14
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
67▼ 38
Penalty yards
▼ 4558
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 298.5
Proj. 372
72%
Lost · 285
Passing yards
Over 178.5
Proj. 236
72%
Won · 212
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 136
72%
Lost · 73
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
73%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 415.5
Proj. 488
72%
Lost · 250
Passing yards
Over 191.5
Proj. 249
72%
Lost · 167
Rushing yards
Over 187.5
Proj. 240
72%
Lost · 83
First downs
Over 20.5
Proj. 24
72%
Lost · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Utah State
QB
Grady Brosterhous17/27 · 189 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.5 INT
189pass yds
RB
Javen Jacobs12 carries · 74 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Eli Wood8 rec · 98 yds · 1.1 TD
98rec yds
WR/TE
Javon Robinson4 rec · 60 yds · 0.6 TD
60rec yds
Texas St
QB
Brad Jackson20/30 · 230 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT
230pass yds
RB
Torrance Burgess Jr.15 carries · 110 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
110rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Dawn Jr.5 rec · 56 yds · 0.5 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Beau Sparks4 rec · 55 yds · 0.3 TD
55rec yds
Road form. Utah State is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 18.0 points a game.
Home form. Texas St is 3-1 at home, scoring 51.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at TXST −8.5 and is now TXST −14.5, a 6-point move toward Texas St.
Rest. Utah State comes in on 15 days’ rest, Texas St on 9.
Tale of the tape
Utah StateTexas State
Utah StateTexas State
2-4Record3-3
0-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W1StreakW1
15 daysRest9 days
14.5Points per game40.0
23.5Points allowed32.2
−54
Point differentialseason to date
+47
190Passing yards / game259
120Rushing yards / game304
38%3rd-down conversion55%
7Takeaways5
0Sacks0
12Turnovers10
167Passing yards / game248
101Rushing yards / game367
35%3rd-down conversion60%
2Takeaways4
0Sacks0
5Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Utah State’s road games with Texas St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Utah State
2-4
LLWLW
Wk 6Oct 9vs WSU
Washington St16Utah State17
Washington St moneyline +145Utah State moneyline −182
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ BSU
Utah State18Boise St37
Utah State moneyline +660Boise St moneyline −1667
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs TROY
Troy10Utah State21
Troy moneyline +112Utah State moneyline −149
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ UTAH
Utah State0Utah33
Utah State moneyline +1300Utah moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ WASH
Utah State14Washington16
Utah State moneyline +1700Washington moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Texas St
3-3
LWWLW
Wk 7Oct 15vs CSU
Colorado St27Texas St66
Colorado St moneyline +397Texas St moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ SDSU
Texas St29San Diego St31
Texas St moneyline −417San Diego St moneyline +280
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs IW
Incarnate Word10Texas St63
Incarnate Word moneyline +1300Texas St moneyline −5000
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs UNT
North Texas35Texas St49
North Texas moneyline +118Texas St moneyline −156
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs UTSA
UTSA31Texas St26
UTSA moneyline +103Texas St moneyline −132
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (USU)+390+390
Moneyline (TXST)−556−556
Spread (TXST)−8.5down −14.5
Total59.559.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Texas State beat Utah State 20–17 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Utah State at +390 and Texas State at −556.
Our model predicted a final score of Utah State 27, Texas St 30. Its picks: Texas State to win (−667), won; Utah State +20.5 (−200), won; over 51.5 points (−256), lost. The best pick was Texas State to win, at 91% confidence.