Moneyline
USU MLodds down −149
69%
Utah State wins the game.
Confidence69%
Model56.7%
SportsbooksOdds56.0%
Edge+0.7
Utah State vs San Diego State prediction, picks and odds
SpreadUSU −2.5
Total42.5 points
Kickoff in3d 6h
Updated 1:48 PM ET
Utah State vs San Diego St picks
3 picks · Utah State by 3 · 45 pointsSpreadBest pick
USU +5.5−256
77%
Utah State wins, or loses by five points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model70.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+2.2
Total
Over 36.5−238
74%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model75.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+8.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Utah State010771024
San Diego St07014721
Most likely final scoresUSU 24–21 SDSU 0.6%USU 28–14 SDSU 0.5%USU 31–28 SDSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Utah StateSan Diego St
Offense
382
Total yards
335
230
Passing yards
199
152
Rushing yards
136
21
First downs
18
Scoring
3
Touchdowns
2
1
Passing touchdowns
1
2
Rushing touchdowns
1
1
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
53
Penalty yards
50
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 309.5
Proj. 383
72%
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 230
72%
Rushing yards
Over 99.5
Proj. 152
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
70%
Total yards
Over 261.5
Proj. 335
72%
Passing yards
Over 141.5
Proj. 198
72%
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 136
72%
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
71%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Utah State
QB
McCae Hillstead13/21 · 152 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.7 INT
152pass yds
RB
Javen Jacobs14 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec
71rush yds
WR/TE
Anthony Garcia7 rec · 85 yds · 0.0 TD
85rec yds
WR/TE
Javon Robinson4 rec · 38 yds · 0.2 TD
38rec yds
San Diego St
QB
Stone Saunders15/26 · 162 pass yds · 0.4 TD · 0.7 INT
162pass yds
RB
Lucky Sutton15 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
70rush yds
WR/TE
Jaylon Hawkins4 rec · 70 yds · 0.3 TD
70rec yds
WR/TE
Bert Emanuel Jr.3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD
34rec yds
Total move. The total opened at 44.5 and is now 42.5.
Rest. Utah State comes in on 7 days’ rest, San Diego St on 14.
Tale of the tape
Utah StateSan Diego State
Utah StateSan Diego State
4-5Record4-5
W2StreakW1
7 daysRest14 days
16.9Points per game26.4
20.6Points allowed34.3
5th Pac-12Conference6th Pac-12
−33
Point differentialseason to date
−71
187Passing yards / game168
133Rushing yards / game157
39%3rd-down conversion34%
9Takeaways11
0Sacks0
12Turnovers13
179Passing yards / game152
94Rushing yards / game193
33%3rd-down conversion39%
2Takeaways8
0Sacks0
5Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Utah State’s road games with San Diego St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Utah State
4-5
LWLWW
Wk 10Nov 7vs FRES
Fresno St10Utah State17
Fresno St moneyline −102Utah State moneyline −122
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs CSU
Colorado St14Utah State31
Colorado St moneyline +250Utah State moneyline −345
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ TXST
Utah State17Texas St20
Utah State moneyline +390Texas St moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs WSU
Washington St16Utah State17
Washington St moneyline +145Utah State moneyline −182
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ BSU
Utah State18Boise St37
Utah State moneyline +660Boise St moneyline −1667
LFINAL
San Diego St
4-5
WLWLW
Wk 9Oct 31vs WSU
Washington St20San Diego St26
Washington St moneyline +118San Diego St moneyline −156
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ CSU
San Diego St49Colorado St56
San Diego St moneyline −112Colorado St moneyline −119
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs FRES
Fresno St23San Diego St26
Fresno St moneyline −333San Diego St moneyline +255
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ ORST
San Diego St14Oregon St66
San Diego St moneyline +525Oregon St moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TXST
Texas St29San Diego St31
Texas St moneyline −417San Diego St moneyline +280
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (USU)−156−156
Moneyline (SDSU)+128+128
Spread (SDSU)+2.5+2.5
Total44.5down 42.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Utah State visits San Diego State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 9:30 PM ET. Utah State comes in at 4-5 and San Diego State at 4-5. The moneyline has Utah State at −156 and San Diego State at +128.
Our model predicts a final score of Utah State 24, San Diego St 21. Its picks: Utah State to win (−149); Utah State +5.5 (−256); over 36.5 points (−238). The best pick is Utah State +5.5, at 77% confidence.