Moneyline
TROY MLodds up −667
Lost 95%
Troy wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model85.0%
SportsbooksOdds89.0%
Edge−4.0
UL Monroe vs Troy prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 24, 9:05 PM ET
UL Monroe vs Troy picks
3 picks · Troy by 21 · 49 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
ULM +24.5odds down −345
Won 78%
UL Monroe wins, or loses by 24 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model67.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge−1.7
TotalBest pick
Over 43.5odds up −250
Lost 80%
The two teams score 44 or more points between them.
Confidence80%
Model72.6%
SportsbooksOdds71.0%
Edge+1.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UL Monroe0707714
Troy714772135
Most likely final scoresULM 14–35 TROY 0.5%ULM 14–38 TROY 0.5%ULM 21–35 TROY 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UL MonroeTroy
Offense
332▼ 243
Total yards
▼ 200439
202▼ 149
Passing yards
▼ 47225
130▼ 94
Rushing yards
▼ 153214
18▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1222
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▼ 24
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
54▼ 30
Penalty yards
▼ 5054
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 259.5
Proj. 332
72%
Lost · 243
Passing yards
Over 145.5
Proj. 203
72%
Won · 149
Rushing yards
Over 77.5
Proj. 130
72%
Won · 94
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 17
Total yards
Over 365.5
Proj. 439
72%
Lost · 200
Passing yards
Over 167.5
Proj. 225
72%
Lost · 47
Rushing yards
Over 161.5
Proj. 214
72%
Lost · 153
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Lost · 12
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UL Monroe
QB
Aidan Armenta13/23 · 154 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.5 INT
154pass yds
RB
Zachary PalmerSmith7 carries · 43 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
43rush yds
WR/TE
Marcellus Jackson5 rec · 39 yds · 0.0 TD
39rec yds
WR/TE
JP Coulter2 rec · 25 yds · 0.0 TD
25rec yds
Troy
QB
Will Crowder17/27 · 210 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
210pass yds
RB
Gavin Griffin13 carries · 63 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 2 rec
63rush yds
WR/TE
Jace Petty3 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD
33rec yds
WR/TE
Noreel White2 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD
33rec yds
Road form. UL Monroe is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 24.0 points a game.
Home form. Troy is 3-0 at home, scoring 37.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at TROY −17.5 and is now TROY −12.5, a 5-point move toward UL Monroe.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
UL MonroeTroy
UL MonroeTroy
0-6Record3-3
0-3 roadRoad / home3-0 home
L6StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
20.0Points per game24.3
41.2Points allowed25.5
−127
Point differentialseason to date
−7
219Passing yards / game198
123Rushing yards / game205
31%3rd-down conversion36%
4Takeaways7
0Sacks0
9Turnovers7
184Passing yards / game197
142Rushing yards / game280
22%3rd-down conversion40%
2Takeaways5
0Sacks0
3Turnovers0
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UL Monroe’s road games with Troy’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
UL Monroe
0-6
LLLLL
Wk 7Oct 17vs LT
Louisiana Tech24UL Monroe0
Louisiana Tech moneyline −714UL Monroe moneyline +480
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ USA
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs FAU
FAU45UL Monroe17
FAU: no odds on recordUL Monroe: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs SL
SE Louisiana38UL Monroe35
SE Louisiana: no odds on recordUL Monroe: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ UAB
UL Monroe20UAB26
UL Monroe: no odds on recordUAB: no odds on record
LFINAL
Troy
3-3
WLLWL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ULL
Troy6Louisiana33
Troy moneyline +128Louisiana moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6vs USM
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ USU
Troy10Utah State21
Troy moneyline +112Utah State moneyline −149
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ MIZ
Troy17Missouri27
Troy moneyline +1100Missouri moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs AS
Alabama St17Troy34
Alabama St: no odds on recordTroy: no odds on record
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
UL MONROE
0
Wins
Avg. points14.0 – 37.0
Avg. total51.0 pts
1
TROY
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 8Malone Stadium
UL Monroe14Troy37
UL Monroe: no odds on recordTroy: no odds on record
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ULM)+450up +475
Moneyline (TROY)−769down −833
Spread (TROY)−17.5up −12.5
Total50.550.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
UL Monroe beat Troy 21–14 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 4:00 PM ET. The moneyline had UL Monroe at +475 and Troy at −833.
Our model predicted a final score of UL Monroe 14, Troy 35. Its picks: Troy to win (−667), lost; UL Monroe +24.5 (−345), won; over 43.5 points (−250), lost. The best pick was over 43.5 points, at 80% confidence.