Moneyline
ARST MLodds up −714
Lost 95%
Arkansas St wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model84.2%
SportsbooksOdds86.5%
Edge−2.3
UL Monroe vs Arkansas State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULM | 6 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 19 |
| ARST | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
UL MONROE 16%
Pre-game win chance
84% ARKANSAS ST
ARST by 28 · 56 points
Updated Nov 7, 6:14 PM ET
UL Monroe vs Arkansas St picks
3 picks · Arkansas St by 28 · 56 points · 0 of 3 wonSpread
ARST −7.5odds up −222
Lost 78%
Arkansas St wins by eight points or more.
Confidence78%
Model67.1%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge0.0
TotalBest pick
Over 44.5odds down −294
Lost 79%
The two teams score 45 or more points between them.
Confidence79%
Model71.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+1.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
UL Monroe0707714
Arkansas St1470212142
Most likely final scoresULM 14–42 ARST 0.7%ULM 17–45 ARST 0.5%ULM 14–38 ARST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
UL MonroeArkansas St
Offense
332▲ 381
Total yards
▼ 296404
192▼ 121
Passing yards
▼ 176229
140▲ 260
Rushing yards
▼ 120175
18▲ 22
First downs
▼ 1821
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▼ 25
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 13
0▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
56▲ 65
Penalty yards
▼ 2852
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 259.5
Proj. 332
72%
Won · 381
Passing yards
Over 135.5
Proj. 192
72%
Lost · 121
Rushing yards
Over 87.5
Proj. 140
72%
Won · 260
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 330.5
Proj. 404
72%
Lost · 296
Passing yards
Over 171.5
Proj. 229
72%
Won · 176
Rushing yards
Over 122.5
Proj. 175
72%
Lost · 120
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
71%
Won · 18
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
UL Monroe
QB
Aidan Armenta14/23 · 162 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.5 INT
162pass yds
RB
Zachary PalmerSmith8 carries · 46 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
46rush yds
WR/TE
Marcellus Jackson4 rec · 40 yds · 0.1 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
JP Coulter2 rec · 24 yds · 0.0 TD
24rec yds
Arkansas St
QB
Trey Owens19/29 · 229 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
229pass yds
RB
Solomon Baggett12 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
57rush yds
WR/TE
Hunter Summers5 rec · 62 yds · 1.0 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
Jaylen Bonelli4 rec · 57 yds · 0.5 TD
57rec yds
Road form. UL Monroe is 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 16.3 points a game.
Home form. Arkansas St is 3-1 at home, scoring 39.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 51.5 and is now 52.5.
Rest. UL Monroe comes in on 7 days’ rest, Arkansas St on 14.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
UL MonroeArkansas State
UL MonroeArkansas State
1-7Record4-4
1-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home
L1StreakW2
7 daysRest14 days
20.3Points per game28.8
37.0Points allowed27.3
−134
Point differentialseason to date
+12
208Passing yards / game243
123Rushing yards / game136
32%3rd-down conversion42%
6Takeaways13
0Sacks0
12Turnovers8
175Passing yards / game277
130Rushing yards / game158
23%3rd-down conversion50%
4Takeaways7
0Sacks0
4Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares UL Monroe’s road games with Arkansas St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
UL Monroe
1-7
LLLWL
Wk 9Oct 31vs USM
Southern Miss35UL Monroe21
Southern Miss moneyline −175UL Monroe moneyline +133
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ TROY
UL Monroe21Troy14
UL Monroe moneyline +475Troy moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs LT
Louisiana Tech24UL Monroe0
Louisiana Tech moneyline −714UL Monroe moneyline +480
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ USA
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs FAU
FAU45UL Monroe17
FAU: no odds on recordUL Monroe: no odds on record
LFINAL
Arkansas St
4-4
WLLWW
Wk 8Oct 24vs GAST
Georgia St32Arkansas St38
Georgia St moneyline −141Arkansas St moneyline +108
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ USM
Arkansas St23Southern Miss13
Arkansas St moneyline −233Southern Miss moneyline +185
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8vs USA
South Alabama56Arkansas St49
South Alabama: no odds on recordArkansas St: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ ULL
Arkansas St20Louisiana23
Arkansas St moneyline +170Louisiana moneyline −238
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs KENN
Kennesaw St14Arkansas St17
Kennesaw St moneyline +187Arkansas St moneyline −263
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
UL MONROE
1
Wins
Avg. points28.0 – 16.0
Avg. total44.0 pts
0
ARKANSAS ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 5Malone Stadium
UL Monroe28Arkansas St16
UL Monroe: no odds on recordArkansas St: no odds on record
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ULM)+510+510
Moneyline (ARST)−769−769
Spread (ARST)−14.5−14.5
Total51.5up 52.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
UL Monroe beat Arkansas State 19–17 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 3:00 PM ET. The moneyline had UL Monroe at +510 and Arkansas State at −769.
Our model predicted a final score of UL Monroe 14, Arkansas St 42. Its picks: Arkansas State to win (−714), lost; Arkansas State −7.5 (−222), lost; over 44.5 points (−294), lost. The best pick was over 44.5 points, at 79% confidence.