Moneyline
USA MLodds down −159
78%
South Alabama wins the game.
Confidence78%
Model60.1%
SportsbooksOdds55.0%
Edge+5.1
Troy vs South Alabama prediction, picks and odds
SpreadUSA −2.5
Total55.5 points
Kickoff in3d 3h
Updated 2:03 PM ET
Troy vs South Alabama picks
3 picks · South Alabama by 3 · 59 pointsSpreadBest pick
USA +6.5odds down −323
78%
South Alabama wins, or loses by six points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model75.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+6.3
Total
Under 63.5−250
74%
The two teams score 63 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model73.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+5.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Troy014771428
South Alabama107771731
Most likely final scoresTROY 28–31 USA 0.5%TROY 21–28 USA 0.5%TROY 24–27 USA 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TroySouth Alabama
Offense
360
Total yards
373
199
Passing yards
202
161
Rushing yards
171
19
First downs
20
Scoring
4
Touchdowns
4
2
Passing touchdowns
2
2
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
55
Penalty yards
59
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 286.5
Proj. 360
72%
Passing yards
Over 142.5
Proj. 199
72%
Rushing yards
Over 108.5
Proj. 161
72%
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
75%
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 374
72%
Passing yards
Over 145.5
Proj. 202
72%
Rushing yards
Over 119.5
Proj. 171
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
72%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Troy
QB
Tucker Kilcrease12/20 · 160 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.4 INT
160pass yds
RB
Gavin Griffin10 carries · 40 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
40rush yds
WR/TE
Noreel White3 rec · 46 yds · 0.0 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Marquez Dortch3 rec · 26 yds · 0.0 TD
26rec yds
South Alabama
QB
Bishop Davenport17/28 · 202 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.8 INT
202pass yds
RB
Keenan Phillips12 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
54rush yds
WR/TE
Anthony Eager4 rec · 74 yds · 1.4 TD
74rec yds
WR/TE
Brendan Jenkins4 rec · 58 yds · 0.3 TD
58rec yds
Total move. The total opened at 56.5 and is now 55.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Streak. South Alabama has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
TroySouth Alabama
TroySouth Alabama
4-5Record4-5
L1StreakL3
7 daysRest7 days
22.3Points per game32.4
26.2Points allowed32.2
10th Sun BeltConference9th Sun Belt
−35
Point differentialseason to date
+2
181Passing yards / game206
178Rushing yards / game207
31%3rd-down conversion40%
15Takeaways12
0Sacks0
15Turnovers7
194Passing yards / game215
140Rushing yards / game240
32%3rd-down conversion46%
7Takeaways6
0Sacks0
8Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Troy’s road games with South Alabama’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Troy
4-5
WLLWL
Wk 10Nov 7vs LT
Louisiana Tech41Troy17
Louisiana Tech moneyline −294Troy moneyline +215
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 29@ JMU
Troy24James Madison21
Troy moneyline +750James Madison moneyline −1429
WF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24vs ULM
UL Monroe21Troy14
UL Monroe moneyline +475Troy moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ULL
Troy6Louisiana33
Troy moneyline +128Louisiana moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6vs USM
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
WFINAL
South Alabama
4-5
WWLLL
Wk 10Nov 7@ ULL
South Alabama26Louisiana28
South Alabama moneyline +235Louisiana moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs LT
Louisiana Tech35South Alabama20
Louisiana Tech moneyline −250South Alabama moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 20@ MRSH
South Alabama13Marshall20
South Alabama moneyline −122Marshall moneyline +100
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ ARST
South Alabama56Arkansas St49
South Alabama: no odds on recordArkansas St: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ULM
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
TROY
1
Wins
Avg. points31.0 – 24.0
Avg. total55.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 6Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Troy31South Alabama24
Troy moneyline −130South Alabama moneyline +103
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TROY)+125+125
Moneyline (USA)−156−156
Spread (USA)−2.5−2.5
Total56.5down 55.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Troy visits South Alabama in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET. Troy comes in at 4-5 and South Alabama at 4-5. The moneyline has Troy at +125 and South Alabama at −156.
Our model predicts a final score of Troy 28, South Alabama 31. Its picks: South Alabama to win (−159); South Alabama +6.5 (−323); under 63.5 points (−250). The best pick is South Alabama +6.5, at 78% confidence.