Moneyline
ULL MLodds up −161
Won 73%
Louisiana wins the game.
Confidence73%
Model58.4%
SportsbooksOdds64.0%
Edge−5.6
Troy vs Louisiana prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 17, 8:15 PM ET
Troy vs Louisiana picks
3 picks · Louisiana by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
TROY +11.5odds down −323
Lost 77%
Troy wins, or loses by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model70.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge+0.9
Total
Under 57.5−270
Won 74%
The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model71.3%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+1.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Troy77701421
Louisiana014371424
Most likely final scoresTROY 21–24 ULL 0.6%TROY 21–28 ULL 0.6%TROY 17–20 ULL 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TroyLouisiana
Offense
358▼ 267
Total yards
▼ 351371
212▼ 141
Passing yards
▼ 108207
146▼ 126
Rushing yards
▲ 243164
20▼ 12
First downs
▲ 2321
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▲ 43
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 32
0= 0
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
63▼ 55
Penalty yards
▼ 2950
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 285.5
Proj. 358
72%
Lost · 267
Passing yards
Over 154.5
Proj. 212
72%
Lost · 141
Rushing yards
Over 93.5
Proj. 146
72%
Won · 126
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Lost · 12
Total yards
Over 297.5
Proj. 371
72%
Won · 351
Passing yards
Over 149.5
Proj. 207
72%
Lost · 108
Rushing yards
Over 111.5
Proj. 164
72%
Won · 243
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
74%
Won · 23
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Troy
QB
Will Crowder20/32 · 212 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
212pass yds
RB
Gavin Griffin11 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 2 rec
45rush yds
WR/TE
Howard Kinchen4 rec · 46 yds · 0.8 TD
46rec yds
WR/TE
Jace Petty3 rec · 21 yds · 0.0 TD
21rec yds
Louisiana
QB
D'Wayne' Winfield16/25 · 197 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
197pass yds
RB
Steven Blanco6 carries · 23 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
23rush yds
WR/TE
Trenton Chaney3 rec · 35 yds · 0.0 TD
35rec yds
WR/TE
Landon Strother3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD
34rec yds
Road form. Troy is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 10.5 points a game.
Home form. Louisiana is 3-0 at home, scoring 27.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ULL −4.5 and is now ULL −2.5, a 2-point move toward Troy.
Rest. Troy comes in on 11 days’ rest, Louisiana on 7.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
TroyLouisiana
TroyLouisiana
3-2Record4-2
0-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W1StreakL1
11 daysRest7 days
28.0Points per game29.5
24.0Points allowed21.5
+20
Point differentialseason to date
+48
209Passing yards / game190
220Rushing yards / game192
38%3rd-down conversion38%
7Takeaways12
0Sacks0
5Turnovers10
228Passing yards / game177
131Rushing yards / game238
37%3rd-down conversion41%
2Takeaways5
0Sacks0
5Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Troy’s road games with Louisiana’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Troy
3-2
WWLLW
Wk 6Oct 6vs USM
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ USU
Troy10Utah State21
Troy moneyline +112Utah State moneyline −149
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ MIZ
Troy17Missouri27
Troy moneyline +1100Missouri moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs AS
Alabama St17Troy34
Alabama St: no odds on recordTroy: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs SHSU
Sam Houston21Troy24
Sam Houston moneyline +500Troy moneyline −1000
WFINAL
Louisiana
4-2
LWWWL
Wk 6Oct 10@ LT
Louisiana31Louisiana Tech32
Louisiana moneyline +121Louisiana Tech moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ARST
Arkansas St20Louisiana23
Arkansas St moneyline +170Louisiana moneyline −238
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ CLT
Louisiana34Charlotte7
Louisiana moneyline −417Charlotte moneyline +285
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs UAB
UAB14Louisiana21
UAB moneyline +200Louisiana moneyline −278
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ USC
Louisiana30USC49
Louisiana moneyline +1500USC moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
TROY
1
Wins
Avg. points35.0 – 23.0
Avg. total58.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
LOUISIANA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Troy35Louisiana23
Troy moneyline +230Louisiana moneyline −323
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TROY)+120up +128
Moneyline (ULL)−149down −156
Spread (ULL)−4.5up −2.5
Total47.5up 49.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Louisiana beat Troy 33–6 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 5:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Troy at +128 and Louisiana at −156.
Our model predicted a final score of Troy 21, Louisiana 24. Its picks: Louisiana to win (−161), won; Troy +11.5 (−323), lost; under 57.5 points (−270), won. The best pick was Troy +11.5, at 77% confidence.