Moneyline
JMU MLodds up −1250
Lost 95%
James Madison wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model90.8%
SportsbooksOdds93.0%
Edge−2.2
Troy vs James Madison prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TROY | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 24 |
| JMU | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
TROY 9%
Pre-game win chance
91% JAMES MADISON
JMU by 28 · 56 points
Updated Oct 29, 11:35 PM ET
Troy vs James Madison picks
3 picks · James Madison by 28 · 56 points · 0 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
JMU −12.5odds up −200
Lost 77%
James Madison wins by 13 points or more.
Confidence77%
Model71.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+3.0
Total
Over 45.5odds up −208
Lost 74%
The two teams score 46 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model65.1%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge−2.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Troy0770714
James Madison7147142142
Most likely final scoresTROY 14–42 JMU 0.8%TROY 14–38 JMU 0.7%TROY 7–41 JMU 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TroyJames Madison
Offense
315▲ 349
Total yards
▼ 408419
193▼ 179
Passing yards
▲ 247230
122▲ 170
Rushing yards
▼ 161189
18▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1721
Scoring
2▲ 3
Touchdowns
▼ 35
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 23
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 51
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 31
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
0
Sacks allowed
0
63▼ 44
Penalty yards
▲ 7159
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 242.5
Proj. 315
72%
Won · 349
Passing yards
Over 136.5
Proj. 193
72%
Won · 179
Rushing yards
Over 69.5
Proj. 122
72%
Won · 170
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 18
74%
Won · 17
Total yards
Over 346.5
Proj. 420
72%
Won · 408
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Won · 247
Rushing yards
Over 136.5
Proj. 189
72%
Won · 161
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Lost · 17
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Troy
QB
Will Crowder17/30 · 180 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT
180pass yds
RB
Jordan Lovett9 carries · 34 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 2 rec
34rush yds
WR/TE
TJ Lott3 rec · 37 yds · 0.0 TD
37rec yds
WR/TE
Jace Petty3 rec · 30 yds · 0.0 TD
30rec yds
James Madison
QB
Camden Coleman17/28 · 196 pass yds · 2.3 TD · 0.6 INT
196pass yds
RB
George Pettaway16 carries · 115 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
115rush yds
WR/TE
Michael Scott3 rec · 36 yds · 0.4 TD
36rec yds
WR/TE
Jeremiah Harrison3 rec · 33 yds · 0.4 TD
33rec yds
Road form. Troy is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 16.0 points a game.
Home form. James Madison is 4-0 at home, scoring 50.3 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 49.5 and is now 51.5.
Rest. Troy comes in on 5 days’ rest, James Madison on 7.
Tale of the tape
TroyJames Madison
TroyJames Madison
3-4Record7-1
0-3 roadRoad / home4-0 home
L2StreakL1
5 daysRest7 days
22.9Points per game41.4
24.9Points allowed18.3
−14
Point differentialseason to date
+185
176Passing yards / game249
197Rushing yards / game207
34%3rd-down conversion37%
8Takeaways12
0Sacks0
9Turnovers6
199Passing yards / game236
129Rushing yards / game256
33%3rd-down conversion50%
2Takeaways6
0Sacks0
7Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Troy’s road games with James Madison’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Troy
3-4
LLWLL
Wk 8Oct 24vs ULM
UL Monroe21Troy14
UL Monroe moneyline +475Troy moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ULL
Troy6Louisiana33
Troy moneyline +128Louisiana moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6vs USM
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ USU
Troy10Utah State21
Troy moneyline +112Utah State moneyline −149
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ MIZ
Troy17Missouri27
Troy moneyline +1100Missouri moneyline −10000
LFINAL
James Madison
7-1
WWWWL
Wk 8Oct 22@ APP
James Madison31App State34
James Madison moneyline −588App State moneyline +365
LF/OT
Wk 7Oct 17vs GAST
Georgia St22James Madison49
Georgia St moneyline +275James Madison moneyline −370
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ GASO
James Madison27GA Southern24
James Madison moneyline −294GA Southern moneyline +230
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs MRSH
Marshall17James Madison45
Marshall moneyline +480James Madison moneyline −909
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ ODU
James Madison46Old Dominion20
James Madison moneyline −270Old Dominion moneyline +195
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Sun Belt East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
TROY
0
Wins
Avg. points14.0 – 31.0
Avg. total45.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
JAMES MADISON
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 15James Madison home
Troy14James Madison31
Troy moneyline +1100James Madison moneyline −5000
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TROY)+800down +750
Moneyline (JMU)−1667up −1429
Spread (JMU)−17.5−17.5
Total49.5up 51.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Troy beat James Madison 24–21 in college football Week 9, on Thursday, October 29 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Troy at +750 and James Madison at −1429.
Our model predicted a final score of Troy 14, James Madison 42. Its picks: James Madison to win (−1250), lost; James Madison −12.5 (−200), lost; over 45.5 points (−208), lost. The best pick was James Madison −12.5, at 77% confidence.