Texas vs Missouri Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TEX	7	3	10	14	34
MIZ	10	0	10	0	20

Texas vs Missouri picks

3 picks · Texas by 14 · 42 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

TEX MLodds up −141 Won 84%

Texas wins the game.

Confidence84%

Model62.8% SportsbooksOdds57.6% Edge+5.2

Spread

TEX +3.5odds up −213 Won 81%

Texas wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence81%

Model72.1% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+3.8

TotalBest pick

Over 37.5odds down −244 Won 80%

The two teams score 38 or more points between them.

Confidence80%

Model72.5% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+5.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Texas0140141428

Missouri0707714

Most likely final scoresTEX 28–14 MIZ 0.6%TEX 24–21 MIZ 0.6%TEX 24–17 MIZ 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

TexasMissouri

Offense

350▲ 373 Total yards ▲ 336331

230▲ 297 Passing yards ▲ 252202

120▼ 76 Rushing yards ▼ 84129

19▲ 21 First downs ▼ 1719

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns = 22

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▲ 21

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

2= 2 Field goals made ▲ 20

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▲ 2 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

65= 65 Penalty yards ▼ 4559

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 276.5 Proj. 350 72% Won · 373

Passing yards Over 172.5 Proj. 230 72% Won · 297

Rushing yards Over 67.5 Proj. 120 72% Won · 76

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 21

Total yards Over 257.5 Proj. 331 72% Won · 336

Passing yards Over 144.5 Proj. 202 72% Won · 252

Rushing yards Over 76.5 Proj. 129 72% Won · 84

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 71% Won · 17

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Texas

QB Arch Manning19/30 · 228 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 228pass yds

RB Raleek Brown11 carries · 56 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 56rush yds

WR/TE Ryan Wingo5 rec · 61 yds · 0.4 TD 61rec yds

WR/TE Jermaine Bishop Jr.3 rec · 23 yds · 0.2 TD 23rec yds

Missouri

QB Austin Simmons19/33 · 202 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 202pass yds

RB Jamal Roberts26 carries · 108 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 108rush yds

WR/TE Cayden Lee7 rec · 77 yds · 0.3 TD 77rec yds

WR/TE Donovan Olugbode5 rec · 58 yds · 0.5 TD 58rec yds

Road form. Texas is 1-1 on the road this season.

Home form. Missouri is 4-0 at home, scoring 38.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MIZ +3.5 and is now MIZ +2.5, a 1-point move toward Missouri.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

TexasMissouri

6-2Record6-2

1-1 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W2StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

30.8Points per game31.5

17.1Points allowed18.4

+109 Point differentialseason to date +105

224Passing yards / game255

135Rushing yards / game163

40%3rd-down conversion42%

9Takeaways13

0Sacks0

12Turnovers5

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Texas’ road games with Missouri’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.