Texas vs LSU Prediction & Picks

Texas vs LSU picks

3 picks · LSU by 3 · 45 points

Moneyline

LSU MLodds down −196 62%

LSU wins the game.

Confidence62%

Model53.9% SportsbooksOdds61.6% Edge−7.7

SpreadBest pick

TEX +10.5odds up −250 78%

Texas wins, or loses by 10 points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model73.8% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+4.0

Total

Over 39.5−250 74%

The two teams score 40 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model69.1% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+1.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Texas70014721

LSU0101401024

Most likely final scoresTEX 21–24 LSU 0.6%TEX 21–28 LSU 0.5%TEX 24–27 LSU 0.4%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

TexasLSU

Offense

311 Total yards 376

205 Passing yards 253

106 Rushing yards 123

17 First downs 22

Scoring

3 Touchdowns 3

2 Passing touchdowns 2

1 Rushing touchdowns 1

0 Field goals made 1

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

56 Penalty yards 51

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 238.5 Proj. 311 72%

Passing yards Over 148.5 Proj. 205 72%

Rushing yards Over 53.5 Proj. 106 72%

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 70%

Total yards Over 303.5 Proj. 376 72%

Passing yards Over 196.5 Proj. 253 72%

Rushing yards Over 70.5 Proj. 123 72%

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 71%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Texas

QB Arch Manning19/29 · 205 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 205pass yds

RB Raleek Brown13 carries · 69 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec 69rush yds

WR/TE Emmett Mosley V3 rec · 56 yds · 0.2 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Ryan Wingo5 rec · 54 yds · 0.4 TD 54rec yds

LSU

QB Sam Leavitt23/34 · 225 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT 225pass yds

RB Dilin Jones16 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 5 rec 54rush yds

WR/TE Jackson Harris6 rec · 84 yds · 0.9 TD 84rec yds

WR/TE Trey'Dez Green6 rec · 45 yds · 0.7 TD 45rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at LSU −5.5 and is now LSU −4.5, a 1-point move toward Texas.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Texas has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

TexasLSU

7-2Record6-3

W3StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

31.1Points per game37.1

17.4Points allowed17.7

4th SECConference6th SEC

+123 Point differentialseason to date +175

232Passing yards / game325

128Rushing yards / game179

40%3rd-down conversion50%

10Takeaways9

0Sacks0

14Turnovers13

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Texas’ road games with LSU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.