Moneyline
ORST MLodds up −200
Lost 71%
Oregon St wins the game.
Confidence71%
Model57.4%
SportsbooksOdds67.7%
Edge−10.3
Texas State vs Oregon State prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 2:28 AM ET
Texas St vs Oregon St picks
3 picks · Oregon St by 7 · 69 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
TXST +13.5odds down −294
Won 78%
Texas St wins, or loses by 13 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model74.2%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+6.1
Total
Under 80.5odds up −256
Won 74%
The two teams score 80 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model71.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+1.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Texas St717702431
Oregon St3141471738
Most likely final scoresTXST 31–38 ORST 0.5%TXST 31–34 ORST 0.5%TXST 27–30 ORST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Texas StOregon St
Offense
416▲ 597
Total yards
▼ 347435
218▼ 214
Passing yards
▼ 267304
198▲ 383
Rushing yards
▼ 80131
22▲ 25
First downs
▼ 2223
Scoring
4▲ 6
Touchdowns
▼ 35
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 03
2▲ 5
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 32
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▼ 01
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
58▼ 40
Penalty yards
▼ 3060
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 343.5
Proj. 416
72%
Won · 597
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 218
72%
Won · 214
Rushing yards
Over 146.5
Proj. 199
72%
Won · 383
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
72%
Won · 25
Total yards
Over 362.5
Proj. 435
72%
Lost · 347
Passing yards
Over 246.5
Proj. 304
72%
Won · 267
Rushing yards
Over 79.5
Proj. 132
72%
Won · 80
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 23
73%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Texas St
QB
Brad Jackson20/31 · 207 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT
207pass yds
RB
Torrance Burgess Jr.14 carries · 97 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
97rush yds
WR/TE
Beau Sparks4 rec · 52 yds · 0.3 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Chris Dawn Jr.5 rec · 51 yds · 0.5 TD
51rec yds
Oregon St
QB
Braden Atkinson26/38 · 292 pass yds · 2.8 TD · 0.7 INT
292pass yds
RB
AJ Newberry10 carries · 56 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 4 rec
56rush yds
WR/TE
Jesse Legree7 rec · 118 yds · 1.6 TD
118rec yds
WR/TE
Eric Olsen4 rec · 39 yds · 0.4 TD
39rec yds
Road form. Texas St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 18.3 points a game.
Home form. Oregon St is 3-1 at home, scoring 47.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ORST −8.5 and is now ORST −4.5, a 4-point move toward Texas St.
Rest. Both teams come in on 8 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Texas StateOregon State
Texas StateOregon State
4-4Record5-3
0-3 roadRoad / home3-1 home
L1StreakL1
8 daysRest8 days
38.1Points per game40.1
32.0Points allowed25.0
+49
Point differentialseason to date
+121
215Passing yards / game337
238Rushing yards / game125
55%3rd-down conversion47%
5Takeaways8
0Sacks0
10Turnovers4
187Passing yards / game398
118Rushing yards / game150
48%3rd-down conversion47%
1Takeaways4
0Sacks0
5Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Texas St’s road games with Oregon St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Texas St
4-4
WLWWL
Wk 9Oct 30@ BSU
Texas St45Boise St46
Texas St moneyline +330Boise St moneyline −500
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs USU
Utah State17Texas St20
Utah State moneyline +390Texas St moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 15vs CSU
Colorado St27Texas St66
Colorado St moneyline +397Texas St moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ SDSU
Texas St29San Diego St31
Texas St moneyline −417San Diego St moneyline +280
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs IW
Incarnate Word10Texas St63
Incarnate Word moneyline +1300Texas St moneyline −5000
WFINAL
Oregon St
5-3
WWWWL
Wk 9Oct 30@ FRES
Oregon St22Fresno St38
Oregon St moneyline −250Fresno St moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs WSU
Washington St30Oregon St48
Washington St moneyline +700Oregon St moneyline −1250
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs SDSU
San Diego St14Oregon St66
San Diego St moneyline +525Oregon St moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ CSU
Oregon St56Colorado St26
Oregon St moneyline −278Colorado St moneyline +200
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ UTEP
Oregon St33UTEP7
Oregon St moneyline −500UTEP moneyline +340
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (TXST)+157+157
Moneyline (ORST)−213−213
Spread (ORST)−8.5up −4.5
Total66.5up 71.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Texas State beat Oregon State 42–21 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 10:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Texas State at +157 and Oregon State at −213.
Our model predicted a final score of Texas St 31, Oregon St 38. Its picks: Oregon State to win (−200), lost; Texas State +13.5 (−294), won; under 80.5 points (−256), won. The best pick was Texas State +13.5, at 78% confidence.