Texas A&M vs Alabama Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
TA&M	7	10	3	0	20
ALA	10	7	0	14	31

Texas A&M vs Alabama picks

3 picks · Alabama by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

ALA MLodds up −667 Won 95%

Alabama wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model79.6% SportsbooksOdds86.5% Edge−6.9

SpreadBest pick

TA&M +23.5odds down −323 Won 77%

Texas A&M wins, or loses by 23 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model71.1% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+1.8

Total

Over 43.5odds up −222 Won 74%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model68.3% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge−0.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Texas A&M77701421

Alabama014771428

Most likely final scoresTA&M 21–28 ALA 0.6%TA&M 21–24 ALA 0.5%TA&M 24–31 ALA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Texas A&MAlabama

Offense

322▼ 278 Total yards ▲ 379374

196▼ 163 Passing yards ▲ 311214

126▼ 115 Rushing yards ▼ 68160

18= 18 First downs ▲ 2019

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▲ 43

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 31

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

0▲ 2 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers = 11

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

51▲ 74 Penalty yards ▲ 6548

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 248.5 Proj. 322 72% Won · 278

Passing yards Over 139.5 Proj. 196 72% Won · 163

Rushing yards Over 73.5 Proj. 126 72% Won · 115

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 18 74% Won · 18

Total yards Over 301.5 Proj. 374 72% Won · 379

Passing yards Over 156.5 Proj. 214 72% Won · 311

Rushing yards Over 108.5 Proj. 161 72% Lost · 68

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 19 74% Won · 20

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Texas A&M

QB Marcel Reed16/27 · 176 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT 176pass yds

RB KJ Edwards7 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec 39rush yds

WR/TE TK Norman4 rec · 54 yds · 0.0 TD 54rec yds

WR/TE Aaron Gregory3 rec · 38 yds · 0.7 TD 38rec yds

Alabama

QB Keelon Russell16/25 · 211 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 211pass yds

RB Trae'shawn Brown9 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Rico Scott3 rec · 36 yds · 0.3 TD 36rec yds

WR/TE Marshall Pritchett2 rec · 31 yds · 0.1 TD 31rec yds

Road form. Texas A&M is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 25.0 points a game.

Home form. Alabama is 3-1 at home, scoring 41.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ALA −15.5 and is now ALA −13.5, a 2-point move toward Texas A&M.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Texas A&MAlabama

4-3Record5-2

0-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W1StreakL2

7 daysRest7 days

29.4Points per game39.3

17.1Points allowed21.4

+86 Point differentialseason to date +125

187Passing yards / game253

160Rushing yards / game164

43%3rd-down conversion43%

10Takeaways16

0Sacks0

8Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Texas A&M’s road games with Alabama’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.