Moneyline
HOU MLodds down −244
Won 66%
The Texans win the game.
Confidence66%
Model57.9%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge−9.2
Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 7:48 PM ET
Texans vs Chargers picks
3 picks · Texans by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
LAC +11.5odds down −270
Lost 78%
The Chargers win, or lose by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model76.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge+6.8
Total
Over 34.5odds up −250
Won 76%
The two teams score 35 or more points between them.
Confidence76%
Model68.6%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge−0.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Texans0100101020
Chargers010071017
Most likely final scoresHOU 20–17 LAC 0.9%HOU 23–20 LAC 0.8%HOU 24–17 LAC 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
TexansChargers
Offense
318▲ 485
Total yards
= 315315
213▲ 381
Passing yards
▼ 177207
105▼ 104
Rushing yards
▲ 138108
19▲ 22
First downs
▼ 1418
Scoring
2▲ 5
Touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 5
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▲ 31
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▼ 1
Sacks allowed
▲ 83
57▼ 36
Penalty yards
▲ 7954
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 271.5
Proj. 318
72%
Won · 485
Passing yards
Over 171.5
Proj. 213
72%
Won · 381
Rushing yards
Over 76.5
Proj. 105
72%
Won · 104
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
74%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 268.5
Proj. 315
72%
Won · 315
Passing yards
Over 165.5
Proj. 207
72%
Won · 177
Rushing yards
Over 79.5
Proj. 108
72%
Won · 138
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
73%
Lost · 14
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Texans
QB
C.J. Stroud20/31 · 213 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
213pass yds
RB
Jo'quavious Marks13 carries · 51 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
51rush yds
WR/TE
Nico Collins4 rec · 51 yds · 0.3 TD
51rec yds
WR/TE
Dalton Schultz4 rec · 40 yds · 0.0 TD
40rec yds
Chargers
QB
Justin Herbert21/33 · 207 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
207pass yds
RB
Omarion Hampton12 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
41rush yds
WR/TE
Charlie Kolar3 rec · 30 yds · 0.0 TD
30rec yds
WR/TE
Oronde Gadsden II3 rec · 24 yds · 0.3 TD
24rec yds
Road form. The Texans are 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 8.0 points a game.
Home form. The Chargers are 0-3 at home, scoring 15.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at LAC +3.5 and is now LAC +5.5, a 2-point move toward the Texans.
Rest. The Texans come in on 14 days’ rest, the Chargers on 7.
Streak. The Chargers have lost 7 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Houston TexansLos Angeles Chargers
Houston TexansLos Angeles Chargers
2-5Record0-7
2-1 roadRoad / home0-3 home
L1StreakL7
14 daysRest7 days
23.6Points per game14.1
24.3Points allowed25.0
−5
Point differentialseason to date
−76
5.5Yards per play4.7
253Passing yards / game177
85Rushing yards / game111
37%3rd-down conversion35%
60%Red-zone touchdowns47%
6Takeaways11
23Sacks12
3Turnovers17
5.7Yards per play4.6
238Passing yards / game151
88Rushing yards / game121
44%3rd-down conversion33%
58%Red-zone touchdowns83%
6Takeaways2
10Sacks4
1Turnovers8
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Texans’ road games with the Chargers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Texans
2-5
LLWWL
Wk 7Oct 25vs NYG
Giants27Texans21
Giants moneyline +375Texans moneyline −500
LF/OT
Wk 6Oct 18@ JAX
Texans34Jaguars31
Texans moneyline +122Jaguars moneyline −145
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ TEN
Texans26Titans3
Texans moneyline −333Titans moneyline +244
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DAL
Cowboys34Texans30
Cowboys moneyline +123Texans moneyline −152
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ IND
Texans17Colts19
Texans moneyline −125Colts moneyline +102
LFINAL
Chargers
0-7
LLLLL
Wk 8Nov 1@ LAR
Chargers9Rams24
Chargers moneyline +235Rams moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ KC
Chargers6Chiefs22
Chargers moneyline +330Chiefs moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs DEN
Broncos23Chargers17
Broncos moneyline −189Chargers moneyline +151
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ SEA
Chargers23Seahawks30
Chargers moneyline +265Seahawks moneyline −357
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ BUF
Chargers16Bills24
Chargers moneyline +270Bills moneyline −345
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC South
Head-to-head
Last three meetings · regular season and playoffs
TEXANS
2
Wins
Avg. points25.3 – 20.7
Avg. total46.0 pts
Over closing total2 of 3
1
CHARGERS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 17SoFi Stadium
Texans20Chargers16
Texans moneyline −105Chargers moneyline −123
2024 · Wild CardNRG Stadium
Chargers12Texans32
Chargers moneyline −156Texans moneyline +132
2022 · Wk 4NRG Stadium
Chargers34Texans24
Chargers moneyline −238Texans moneyline +195
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (HOU)−244down −250
Moneyline (LAC)+195+195
Spread (LAC)+3.5up +5.5
Total41.5down 40.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Houston Texans beat the Los Angeles Chargers 44–22 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 4:05 PM ET, at SoFi Stadium, Inglewood. The moneyline had the Texans at −250 and the Chargers at +195.
Our model predicted a final score of Texans 20, Chargers 17. Its picks: the Texans to win (−244), won; the Chargers +11.5 (−270), lost; over 34.5 points (−250), won. The best pick was the Chargers +11.5, at 78% confidence.