MoneylineBest pick
USM MLodds down −172
Won 77%
Southern Miss wins the game.
Confidence77%
Model60.1%
SportsbooksOdds60.1%
Edge0.0
Southern Miss vs UL Monroe prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 0 | 10 | 17 | 8 | 35 |
| ULM | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
SOUTHERN MISS 60%
Pre-game win chance
40% UL MONROE
USM by 3 · 59 points
Updated Oct 31, 7:11 PM ET
Southern Miss vs UL Monroe picks
3 picks · Southern Miss by 3 · 59 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
ULM +9.5odds up −227
Lost 77%
UL Monroe wins, or loses by nine points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model65.0%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge−2.2
Total
Under 64.5odds down −286
Won 74%
The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+1.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Southern Miss1430141731
UL Monroe770141428
Most likely final scoresUSM 31–28 ULM 0.6%USM 35–28 ULM 0.5%USM 27–24 ULM 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Southern MissUL Monroe
Offense
408▼ 379
Total yards
▼ 359385
228▼ 130
Passing yards
▼ 202217
180▲ 249
Rushing yards
▼ 157168
21▼ 16
First downs
▲ 2321
Scoring
4= 4
Touchdowns
= 33
2▼ 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
0
Sacks allowed
0
52▲ 87
Penalty yards
▼ 4658
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 334.5
Proj. 408
72%
Won · 379
Passing yards
Over 170.5
Proj. 228
72%
Lost · 130
Rushing yards
Over 128.5
Proj. 180
72%
Won · 249
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
70%
Lost · 16
Total yards
Over 311.5
Proj. 385
72%
Won · 359
Passing yards
Over 159.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 202
Rushing yards
Over 115.5
Proj. 168
72%
Won · 157
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
74%
Won · 23
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Southern Miss
QB
Landry Lyddy14/23 · 174 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.4 INT
174pass yds
RB
Steven Robinson21 carries · 106 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 2 rec
106rush yds
WR/TE
Mario Sanders II5 rec · 72 yds · 0.9 TD
72rec yds
WR/TE
Kaden Saunders3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD
34rec yds
UL Monroe
QB
Aidan Armenta15/24 · 177 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.5 INT
177pass yds
RB
Zachary PalmerSmith10 carries · 67 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec
67rush yds
WR/TE
Marcellus Jackson5 rec · 40 yds · 0.0 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
JP Coulter3 rec · 30 yds · 0.0 TD
30rec yds
Road form. Southern Miss is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 19.7 points a game.
Home form. UL Monroe is 0-3 at home, scoring 17.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ULM +2.5 and is now ULM +3.5, a 1-point move toward Southern Miss.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Southern MissUL Monroe
Southern MissUL Monroe
2-5Record1-6
0-3 roadRoad / home0-3 home
W1StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
25.7Points per game20.1
32.4Points allowed37.3
−47
Point differentialseason to date
−120
247Passing yards / game209
155Rushing yards / game118
32%3rd-down conversion30%
8Takeaways6
0Sacks0
11Turnovers10
277Passing yards / game253
101Rushing yards / game103
29%3rd-down conversion40%
2Takeaways2
0Sacks0
5Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Southern Miss’ road games with UL Monroe’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Southern Miss
2-5
LLLLW
Wk 8Oct 24vs ULL
Louisiana31Southern Miss35
Louisiana moneyline −556Southern Miss moneyline +360
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs ARST
Arkansas St23Southern Miss13
Arkansas St moneyline −233Southern Miss moneyline +185
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6@ TROY
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TULN
Southern Miss21Tulane24
Southern Miss moneyline +580Tulane moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs CONN
UConn48Southern Miss20
UConn moneyline −167Southern Miss moneyline +130
LFINAL
UL Monroe
1-6
LLLLW
Wk 8Oct 24@ TROY
UL Monroe21Troy14
UL Monroe moneyline +475Troy moneyline −833
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs LT
Louisiana Tech24UL Monroe0
Louisiana Tech moneyline −714UL Monroe moneyline +480
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ USA
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs FAU
FAU45UL Monroe17
FAU: no odds on recordUL Monroe: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs SL
SE Louisiana38UL Monroe35
SE Louisiana: no odds on recordUL Monroe: no odds on record
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
SOUTHERN MISS
1
Wins
Avg. points49.0 – 21.0
Avg. total70.0 pts
0
UL MONROE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9M. M. Roberts Stadium
Southern Miss49UL Monroe21
Southern Miss: no odds on recordUL Monroe: no odds on record
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (USM)−175−175
Moneyline (ULM)+133+133
Spread (ULM)+2.5up +3.5
Total54.554.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Southern Miss beat UL Monroe 35–21 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Southern Miss at −175 and UL Monroe at +133.
Our model predicted a final score of Southern Miss 31, UL Monroe 28. Its picks: Southern Miss to win (−172), won; UL Monroe +9.5 (−227), lost; under 64.5 points (−286), won. The best pick was Southern Miss to win, at 77% confidence.