Moneyline
LT ML−1000
95%
Louisiana Tech wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model86.2%
SportsbooksOdds89.0%
Edge−2.8
Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech prediction, picks and odds
SpreadLT −17.5
Total55.5 points
Kickoff in3d 1h
Updated 2:18 PM ET
Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech picks
3 picks · Louisiana Tech by 28 · 62 pointsSpreadBest pick
LT −9.5−263
76%
Louisiana Tech wins by 10 points or more.
Confidence76%
Model67.8%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge−1.5
Total
Over 47.5odds down −294
74%
The two teams score 48 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model68.2%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge−1.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Southern Miss73071017
Louisiana Tech71014141745
Most likely final scoresUSM 17–45 LT 0.6%USM 14–42 LT 0.6%USM 10–38 LT 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Southern MissLouisiana Tech
Offense
338
Total yards
414
210
Passing yards
235
128
Rushing yards
179
19
First downs
22
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
6
1
Passing touchdowns
3
1
Rushing touchdowns
3
1
Field goals made
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
67
Penalty yards
64
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 265.5
Proj. 339
72%
Passing yards
Over 153.5
Proj. 211
72%
Rushing yards
Over 75.5
Proj. 128
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Total yards
Over 341.5
Proj. 415
72%
Passing yards
Over 178.5
Proj. 235
72%
Rushing yards
Over 127.5
Proj. 179
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 23
74%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Southern Miss
QB
John White19/33 · 210 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
210pass yds
RB
Steven Robinson17 carries · 72 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
72rush yds
WR/TE
Mario Sanders II5 rec · 69 yds · 0.6 TD
69rec yds
WR/TE
Kaden Saunders3 rec · 48 yds · 0.0 TD
48rec yds
Louisiana Tech
QB
Blake Baker16/23 · 177 pass yds · 2.3 TD · 0.0 INT
177pass yds
RB
Andrew Burnette14 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
60rush yds
WR/TE
Eli Finley5 rec · 60 yds · 0.9 TD
60rec yds
WR/TE
Jalen Mickens5 rec · 51 yds · 0.5 TD
51rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at LT −18.5 and is now LT −17.5, a 1-point move toward Southern Miss.
Rest. Southern Miss comes in on 9 days’ rest, Louisiana Tech on 7.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Streak. Louisiana Tech has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Southern MissLouisiana Tech
Southern MissLouisiana Tech
3-6Record7-2
L1StreakW6
9 daysRest7 days
26.4Points per game33.6
33.6Points allowed20.4
12th Sun BeltConference2nd Sun Belt
−64
Point differentialseason to date
+118
236Passing yards / game242
158Rushing yards / game142
30%3rd-down conversion43%
10Takeaways22
0Sacks0
11Turnovers10
241Passing yards / game299
138Rushing yards / game190
28%3rd-down conversion55%
4Takeaways6
0Sacks0
5Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Southern Miss’ road games with Louisiana Tech’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Southern Miss
3-6
LLWWL
Wk 10Nov 5vs JMU
James Madison54Southern Miss23
James Madison moneyline −667Southern Miss moneyline +460
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31@ ULM
Southern Miss35UL Monroe21
Southern Miss moneyline −175UL Monroe moneyline +133
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs ULL
Louisiana31Southern Miss35
Louisiana moneyline −556Southern Miss moneyline +360
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs ARST
Arkansas St23Southern Miss13
Arkansas St moneyline −233Southern Miss moneyline +185
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6@ TROY
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
LFINAL
Louisiana Tech
7-2
WWWWW
Wk 10Nov 7@ TROY
Louisiana Tech41Troy17
Louisiana Tech moneyline −294Troy moneyline +215
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31@ USA
Louisiana Tech35South Alabama20
Louisiana Tech moneyline −250South Alabama moneyline +180
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs ODU
Old Dominion0Louisiana Tech26
Old Dominion moneyline +425Louisiana Tech moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ULM
Louisiana Tech24UL Monroe0
Louisiana Tech moneyline −714UL Monroe moneyline +480
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs ULL
Louisiana31Louisiana Tech32
Louisiana moneyline +121Louisiana Tech moneyline −164
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
SOUTHERN MISS
0
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 30.0
Avg. total50.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
LOUISIANA TECH
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 4Joe Aillet Stadium
Louisiana Tech30Southern Miss20
Louisiana Tech moneyline +125Southern Miss moneyline −167
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (USM)+600+600
Moneyline (LT)−1000−1000
Spread (LT)−18.5up −17.5
Total54.5up 55.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Southern Miss visits Louisiana Tech in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 5:00 PM ET. Southern Miss comes in at 3-6 and Louisiana Tech at 7-2. The moneyline has Southern Miss at +600 and Louisiana Tech at −1000.
Our model predicts a final score of Southern Miss 17, Louisiana Tech 45. Its picks: Louisiana Tech to win (−1000); Louisiana Tech −9.5 (−263); over 47.5 points (−294). The best pick is Louisiana Tech −9.5, at 76% confidence.