MoneylineBest pick
USA MLodds up −130
Lost 75%
South Alabama wins the game.
Confidence75%
Model58.5%
SportsbooksOdds55.7%
Edge+2.8
South Alabama vs Marshall prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| MRSH | 0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 |
SOUTH ALABAMA 59%
Pre-game win chance
41% MARSHALL
USA by 7 · 55 points
Updated Oct 20, 11:08 PM ET
South Alabama vs Marshall picks
3 picks · South Alabama by 7 · 55 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
USA −2.5odds up −111
Lost 71%
South Alabama wins by three points or more.
Confidence71%
Model53.9%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+3.9
Total
Under 60.5odds up +161
Won 74%
The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model58.6%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+7.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
South Alabama777101431
Marshall373111024
Most likely final scoresUSA 31–24 MRSH 0.5%USA 31–28 MRSH 0.5%USA 28–21 MRSH 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
South AlabamaMarshall
Offense
407▼ 326
Total yards
▼ 328425
207▼ 148
Passing yards
▼ 181261
200▼ 178
Rushing yards
▼ 147164
20▼ 19
First downs
▼ 2022
Scoring
4▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▼ 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 2
Field goals made
▲ 21
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▼ 02
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
55▼ 30
Penalty yards
▼ 5055
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 334.5
Proj. 407
72%
Lost · 326
Passing yards
Over 150.5
Proj. 207
72%
Lost · 148
Rushing yards
Over 147.5
Proj. 200
72%
Won · 178
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
72%
Won · 19
Total yards
Over 352.5
Proj. 425
72%
Lost · 328
Passing yards
Over 203.5
Proj. 261
72%
Lost · 181
Rushing yards
Over 111.5
Proj. 164
72%
Won · 147
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
69%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
South Alabama
QB
Jared Hollins16/27 · 207 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT
207pass yds
RB
PJ Martin13 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
64rush yds
WR/TE
Anthony Eager3 rec · 59 yds · 1.0 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Jeremiah JonesThomas4 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD
41rec yds
Marshall
QB
Zion Turner9/12 · 111 pass yds · 0.5 TD · 0.3 INT
111pass yds
RB
Carlos Del RioWilson10 carries · 38 rush yds · 0.5 TD
38rush yds
WR/TE
Xayvion TurnerBradshaw4 rec · 70 yds · 0.7 TD
70rec yds
WR/TE
Toby Payne4 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD
33rec yds
Road form. South Alabama is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 7.0 points a game.
Home form. Marshall is 2-1 at home, scoring 28.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MRSH +2.5 and is now MRSH +1.5, a 1-point move toward Marshall.
Rest. South Alabama comes in on 12 days’ rest, Marshall on 10.
Tale of the tape
South AlabamaMarshall
South AlabamaMarshall
4-2Record3-3
1-2 roadRoad / home2-1 home
W2StreakL2
12 daysRest10 days
38.8Points per game22.0
34.5Points allowed33.7
+26
Point differentialseason to date
−70
218Passing yards / game248
220Rushing yards / game159
44%3rd-down conversion41%
11Takeaways5
0Sacks0
3Turnovers14
213Passing yards / game293
189Rushing yards / game169
41%3rd-down conversion41%
5Takeaways3
0Sacks0
3Turnovers9
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares South Alabama’s road games with Marshall’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
South Alabama
4-2
LWLWW
Wk 6Oct 8@ ARST
South Alabama56Arkansas St49
South Alabama: no odds on recordArkansas St: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ULM
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ UK
South Alabama21Kentucky45
South Alabama moneyline +720Kentucky moneyline −2000
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs OHIO
Ohio36South Alabama41
Ohio moneyline +200South Alabama moneyline −286
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ TULN
South Alabama24Tulane28
South Alabama moneyline +285Tulane moneyline −417
LFINAL
Marshall
3-3
WWWLL
Wk 6Oct 10vs CCU
Coastal27Marshall21
Coastal moneyline +148Marshall moneyline −213
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ JMU
Marshall17James Madison45
Marshall moneyline +480James Madison moneyline −909
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs GW
Gardner-Webb35Marshall36
Gardner-Webb moneyline +1000Marshall moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ MOST
Marshall30Missouri St24
Marshall moneyline −204Missouri St moneyline +150
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs MTSU
MTSU26Marshall28
MTSU moneyline +340Marshall moneyline −556
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Sun Belt East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (USA)−122−122
Moneyline (MRSH)+100+100
Spread (MRSH)+2.5down +1.5
Total60.5up 66.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Marshall beat South Alabama 20–13 in college football Week 8, on Tuesday, October 20 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had South Alabama at −122 and Marshall at +100.
Our model predicted a final score of South Alabama 31, Marshall 24. Its picks: South Alabama to win (−130), lost; South Alabama −2.5 (−111), lost; under 60.5 points (+161), won. The best pick was South Alabama to win, at 75% confidence.