MoneylineBest pick
ULL MLodds up −303
Won 91%
Louisiana wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model68.6%
SportsbooksOdds76.4%
Edge−7.8
South Alabama vs Louisiana prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 26 |
| ULL | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
SOUTH ALABAMA 31%
Pre-game win chance
69% LOUISIANA
ULL by 3 · 43 points
Updated Nov 7, 8:41 PM ET
South Alabama vs Louisiana picks
3 picks · Louisiana by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
USA +17.5odds down −313
Won 81%
South Alabama wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.
Confidence81%
Model72.1%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+2.9
Total
Under 65.5odds down −270
Won 74%
The two teams score 65 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model73.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+5.8
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
South Alabama010731020
Louisiana6377923
Most likely final scoresUSA 20–23 ULL 0.5%USA 21–28 ULL 0.5%USA 21–24 ULL 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
South AlabamaLouisiana
Offense
359▲ 369
Total yards
▲ 459383
188▲ 210
Passing yards
▼ 147217
171▼ 159
Rushing yards
▲ 312166
19▼ 17
First downs
▼ 1921
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
= 33
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 11
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
0▲ 2
Field goals made
▼ 01
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
59▲ 65
Penalty yards
▲ 6048
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 286.5
Proj. 359
72%
Won · 369
Passing yards
Over 131.5
Proj. 188
72%
Won · 210
Rushing yards
Over 118.5
Proj. 171
72%
Won · 159
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
72%
Won · 17
Total yards
Over 310.5
Proj. 383
72%
Won · 459
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 217
72%
Lost · 147
Rushing yards
Over 113.5
Proj. 166
72%
Won · 312
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
70%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
South Alabama
QB
Jared Hollins17/30 · 188 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
188pass yds
RB
Keenan Phillips12 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
62rush yds
WR/TE
Anthony Eager4 rec · 65 yds · 0.6 TD
65rec yds
WR/TE
Brendan Jenkins3 rec · 40 yds · 0.1 TD
40rec yds
Louisiana
QB
D'Wayne' Winfield18/27 · 208 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
208pass yds
RB
Steven Blanco8 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
32rush yds
WR/TE
Shelton Sampson Jr.3 rec · 42 yds · 0.0 TD
42rec yds
WR/TE
Trenton Chaney3 rec · 40 yds · 0.2 TD
40rec yds
Road form. South Alabama is 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 7.0 points a game.
Home form. Louisiana is 4-0 at home, scoring 28.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ULL −5.5 and is now ULL −7.5, a 2-point move toward Louisiana.
Rest. South Alabama comes in on 7 days’ rest, Louisiana on 14.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
South AlabamaLouisiana
South AlabamaLouisiana
4-4Record5-3
1-3 roadRoad / home4-0 home
L2StreakL1
7 daysRest14 days
33.3Points per game30.1
32.8Points allowed21.3
+4
Point differentialseason to date
+71
206Passing yards / game193
213Rushing yards / game189
41%3rd-down conversion41%
11Takeaways15
0Sacks0
6Turnovers11
197Passing yards / game160
186Rushing yards / game239
36%3rd-down conversion47%
5Takeaways7
0Sacks0
4Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares South Alabama’s road games with Louisiana’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
South Alabama
4-4
LWWLL
Wk 9Oct 31vs LT
Louisiana Tech35South Alabama20
Louisiana Tech moneyline −250South Alabama moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 20@ MRSH
South Alabama13Marshall20
South Alabama moneyline −122Marshall moneyline +100
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ ARST
South Alabama56Arkansas St49
South Alabama: no odds on recordArkansas St: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ULM
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ UK
South Alabama21Kentucky45
South Alabama moneyline +720Kentucky moneyline −2000
LFINAL
Louisiana
5-3
WWLWL
Wk 8Oct 24@ USM
Louisiana31Southern Miss35
Louisiana moneyline −556Southern Miss moneyline +360
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs TROY
Troy6Louisiana33
Troy moneyline +128Louisiana moneyline −156
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ LT
Louisiana31Louisiana Tech32
Louisiana moneyline +121Louisiana Tech moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ARST
Arkansas St20Louisiana23
Arkansas St moneyline +170Louisiana moneyline −238
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ CLT
Louisiana34Charlotte7
Louisiana moneyline −417Charlotte moneyline +285
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
SOUTH ALABAMA
0
Wins
Avg. points22.0 – 31.0
Avg. total53.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
LOUISIANA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 10South Alabama home
Louisiana31South Alabama22
Louisiana moneyline +150South Alabama moneyline −196
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (USA)+235+235
Moneyline (ULL)−303−303
Spread (ULL)−5.5down −7.5
Total57.5down 56.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Louisiana beat South Alabama 28–26 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 5:00 PM ET. The moneyline had South Alabama at +235 and Louisiana at −303.
Our model predicted a final score of South Alabama 20, Louisiana 23. Its picks: Louisiana to win (−303), won; South Alabama +17.5 (−313), won; under 65.5 points (−270), won. The best pick was Louisiana to win, at 91% confidence.