Moneyline
SEA MLodds up −147
Lost 65%
The Seahawks win the game.
Confidence65%
Model57.7%
SportsbooksOdds58.9%
Edge−1.2
Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 15, 11:44 PM ET
Seahawks vs Broncos picks
3 picks · Seahawks by 3 · 37 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
SEA +3.5odds up −256
Won 78%
The Seahawks win, or lose by three points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model70.1%
SportsbooksOdds70.2%
Edge−0.1
Total
Over 35odds up −244
Lost 77%
The two teams score 36 or more points between them (exactly 35 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model73.7%
SportsbooksOdds70.2%
Edge+3.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Seahawks0100101020
Broncos07100717
Most likely final scoresSEA 20–17 DEN 1.1%SEA 23–20 DEN 0.7%SEA 27–24 DEN 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
SeahawksBroncos
Offense
323▲ 353
Total yards
▼ 168279
201▲ 240
Passing yards
▼ 94182
122▼ 113
Rushing yards
▼ 7497
19▲ 24
First downs
▼ 1317
Scoring
2▼ 1
Touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
2= 2
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1▲ 3
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
3▲ 5
Sacks allowed
= 22
53▲ 75
Penalty yards
▼ 4251
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 276.5
Proj. 323
72%
Won · 353
Passing yards
Over 159.5
Proj. 200
72%
Won · 240
Rushing yards
Over 93.5
Proj. 122
72%
Won · 113
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 232.5
Proj. 279
72%
Lost · 168
Passing yards
Over 140.5
Proj. 182
72%
Lost · 94
Rushing yards
Over 68.5
Proj. 97
72%
Won · 74
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 17
72%
Lost · 13
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Seahawks
QB
Sam Darnold15/25 · 170 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT
170pass yds
RB
Emanuel Wilson15 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Jaxon SmithNjigba7 rec · 105 yds · 0.6 TD
105rec yds
WR/TE
George Holani2 rec · 14 yds · 0.0 TD
14rec yds
Broncos
QB
Bo Nix20/33 · 182 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
182pass yds
RB
J.K. Dobbins14 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
52rush yds
WR/TE
Jaylen Waddle4 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD
41rec yds
WR/TE
RJ Harvey5 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD
38rec yds
Road form. The Seahawks are 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 11.0 points a game.
Home form. The Broncos are 2-0 at home, scoring 25.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at DEN +1.5 and is now DEN +2.5, a 1-point move toward the Seahawks.
Rest. Both teams come in on 4 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Seattle SeahawksDenver Broncos
Seattle SeahawksDenver Broncos
3-2Record3-2
1-1 roadRoad / home2-0 home
L1StreakW1
4 daysRest4 days
26.8Points per game19.4
21.0Points allowed22.2
+29
Point differentialseason to date
−14
5.5Yards per play4.7
222Passing yards / game183
106Rushing yards / game86
30%3rd-down conversion34%
58%Red-zone touchdowns56%
11Takeaways7
14Sacks13
9Turnovers6
6.2Yards per play5.5
306Passing yards / game234
103Rushing yards / game91
41%3rd-down conversion46%
70%Red-zone touchdowns63%
1Takeaways3
4Sacks6
4Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Seahawks’ road games with the Broncos’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Seahawks
3-2
WWLWL
Wk 5Oct 11vs SF
49ers32Seahawks29
49ers moneyline +130Seahawks moneyline −159
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs LAC
Chargers23Seahawks30
Chargers moneyline +265Seahawks moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ WAS
Seahawks31Commanders33
Seahawks moneyline −400Commanders moneyline +310
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ ARI
Seahawks31Cardinals7
Seahawks moneyline −213Cardinals moneyline +170
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 9vs NE
Patriots10Seahawks13
Patriots moneyline +147Seahawks moneyline −182
WFINAL
Broncos
3-2
LWWLW
Wk 5Oct 11@ LAC
Broncos23Chargers17
Broncos moneyline −189Chargers moneyline +151
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ SF
Broncos1449ers24
Broncos moneyline +13049ers moneyline −175
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs LAR
Rams26Broncos30
Rams moneyline −118Broncos moneyline −106
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs JAX
Jaguars13Broncos20
Jaguars moneyline +125Broncos moneyline −152
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 14@ KC
Broncos10Chiefs31
Broncos moneyline +106Chiefs moneyline −128
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC West
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
SEAHAWKS
2
Wins
Avg. points21.5 – 18.0
Avg. total39.5 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
0
BRONCOS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2024 · Wk 1Lumen Field
Broncos20Seahawks26
Broncos moneyline +225Seahawks moneyline −303
2022 · Wk 1Lumen Field
Broncos16Seahawks17
Broncos moneyline −270Seahawks moneyline +220
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SEA)−147−147
Moneyline (DEN)+120+120
Spread (DEN)+1.5up +2.5
Total42.5down 40.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Denver Broncos beat the Seattle Seahawks 17–14 in NFL Week 6 of the 2026 season (Thursday Night Football on Prime Video), on Thursday, October 15 at 8:15 PM ET, at Empower Field at Mile High, Denver. The moneyline had the Seahawks at −147 and the Broncos at +120.
Our model predicted a final score of Seahawks 20, Broncos 17. Its picks: the Seahawks to win (−147), lost; the Seahawks +3.5 (−256), won; over 35 points (−244), lost. The best pick was the Seahawks +3.5, at 78% confidence.