Moneyline
SDSU MLodds up −114
Lost 64%
San Diego St wins the game.
Confidence64%
Model54.6%
SportsbooksOdds56.3%
Edge−1.7
San Diego State vs Colorado State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 14 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| CSU | 14 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 56 |
SAN DIEGO ST 55%
Pre-game win chance
45% COLORADO ST
SDSU by 7 · 63 points
Updated Oct 24, 10:37 PM ET
San Diego St vs Colorado St picks
3 picks · San Diego St by 7 · 63 points · 0 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
SDSU +4.5odds up −200
Lost 76%
San Diego St wins, or loses by four points or fewer.
Confidence76%
Model67.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge−1.8
Total
Under 68.5odds down −270
Lost 74%
The two teams score 68 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model78.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+10.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
San Diego St7143112135
Colorado St0140141428
Most likely final scoresSDSU 35–28 CSU 0.5%SDSU 27–24 CSU 0.5%SDSU 35–21 CSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
San Diego StColorado St
Offense
387▲ 565
Total yards
▲ 549401
183▲ 369
Passing yards
▲ 333253
204▼ 196
Rushing yards
▲ 216148
19▲ 25
First downs
▲ 2620
Scoring
4▲ 5
Touchdowns
▲ 84
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
2▲ 4
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 42
2= 2
Field goals made
= 00
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
51▼ 25
Penalty yards
▼ 2551
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 314.5
Proj. 388
72%
Won · 565
Passing yards
Over 126.5
Proj. 183
72%
Won · 369
Rushing yards
Over 152.5
Proj. 204
72%
Won · 196
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 25
Total yards
Over 327.5
Proj. 401
72%
Won · 549
Passing yards
Over 195.5
Proj. 252
72%
Won · 333
Rushing yards
Over 96.5
Proj. 148
72%
Won · 216
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 26
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
San Diego St
QB
Stone Saunders6/12 · 62 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT
62pass yds
RB
Josiah Lucas18 carries · 121 rush yds · 2.0 TD · 2 rec
121rush yds
WR/TE
Jaylon Hawkins3 rec · 40 yds · 0.7 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
Jordan Napier3 rec · 30 yds · 0.4 TD
30rec yds
Colorado St
QB
Ksaan Farrar17/27 · 167 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.4 INT
167pass yds
RB
Durell Robinson13 carries · 43 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec
43rush yds
WR/TE
Terrence Smith3 rec · 43 yds · 0.5 TD
43rec yds
WR/TE
Jayden Brown3 rec · 15 yds · 0.0 TD
15rec yds
Road form. San Diego St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 31.7 points a game.
Home form. Colorado St is 2-2 at home, scoring 35.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at CSU +2.5 and is now CSU −0.5, a 3-point move toward Colorado St.
Rest. San Diego St comes in on 7 days’ rest, Colorado St on 9.
Streak. Colorado St has lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
San Diego StateColorado State
San Diego StateColorado State
3-4Record2-4
0-3 roadRoad / home2-2 home
W1StreakL4
7 daysRest9 days
23.3Points per game35.7
33.3Points allowed43.2
−70
Point differentialseason to date
−45
148Passing yards / game275
144Rushing yards / game171
29%3rd-down conversion44%
8Takeaways12
0Sacks0
10Turnovers4
128Passing yards / game256
83Rushing yards / game180
18%3rd-down conversion51%
1Takeaways11
0Sacks0
4Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares San Diego St’s road games with Colorado St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
San Diego St
3-4
LLWLW
Wk 7Oct 17vs FRES
Fresno St23San Diego St26
Fresno St moneyline −333San Diego St moneyline +255
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ ORST
San Diego St14Oregon St66
San Diego St moneyline +525Oregon St moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TXST
Texas St29San Diego St31
Texas St moneyline −417San Diego St moneyline +280
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TOL
San Diego St16Toledo41
San Diego St moneyline +112Toledo moneyline −147
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs JMU
James Madison26San Diego St13
James Madison moneyline +110San Diego St moneyline −141
LFINAL
Colorado St
2-4
WLLLL
Wk 7Oct 15@ TXST
Colorado St27Texas St66
Colorado St moneyline +397Texas St moneyline −714
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ORST
Oregon St56Colorado St26
Oregon St moneyline −278Colorado St moneyline +200
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ UTSA
Colorado St45UTSA59
Colorado St moneyline +440UTSA moneyline −714
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs BYU
BYU41Colorado St23
BYU moneyline −1111Colorado St moneyline +540
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs SU
Southern Utah24Colorado St58
Southern Utah moneyline +780Colorado St moneyline −2500
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
SAN DIEGO ST
1
Wins
Avg. points45.0 – 24.0
Avg. total69.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
COLORADO ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 6Snapdragon Stadium
San Diego St45Colorado St24
San Diego St moneyline +162Colorado St moneyline −222
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (SDSU)−120up −112
Moneyline (CSU)−111down −119
Spread (CSU)+2.5down −0.5
Total60.5down 57.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Colorado State beat San Diego State 56–49 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 6:30 PM ET. The moneyline had San Diego State at −112 and Colorado State at −119.
Our model predicted a final score of San Diego St 35, Colorado St 28. Its picks: San Diego State to win (−114), lost; San Diego State +4.5 (−200), lost; under 68.5 points (−270), lost. The best pick was San Diego State +4.5, at 76% confidence.