Moneyline
NE MLodds down −179
Lost 72%
The Patriots win the game.
Confidence72%
Model61.1%
SportsbooksOdds58.5%
Edge+2.6
Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 7:48 PM ET
Packers vs Patriots picks
3 picks · Patriots by 3 · 37 points · 0 of 3 wonSpread
NE +3.5odds down −323
Lost 78%
The Patriots win, or lose by three points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model73.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+4.4
TotalBest pick
Under 54odds down −370
Lost 77%
The two teams score 53 or fewer points between them (exactly 54 is a push).
Confidence77%
Model76.9%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+7.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Packers37701017
Patriots010731020
Most likely final scoresGB 17–20 NE 1.0%GB 20–23 NE 0.6%GB 13–16 NE 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
PackersPatriots
Offense
313▲ 478
Total yards
▲ 387354
230▲ 349
Passing yards
▲ 293233
83▲ 129
Rushing yards
▼ 94121
18▲ 22
First downs
▲ 2221
Scoring
2▲ 5
Touchdowns
▲ 42
1▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 3
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 41
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 31
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▲ 3
Sacks allowed
▲ 42
54▼ 14
Penalty yards
▼ 3153
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 266.5
Proj. 313
72%
Won · 478
Passing yards
Over 189.5
Proj. 231
72%
Won · 349
Rushing yards
Over 54.5
Proj. 83
72%
Won · 129
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
70%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 307.5
Proj. 354
72%
Won · 387
Passing yards
Over 192.5
Proj. 233
72%
Won · 293
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 121
72%
Won · 94
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 21
69%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Packers
QB
Jordan Love23/35 · 230 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
230pass yds
RB
Josh Jacobs17 carries · 49 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 4 rec
49rush yds
WR/TE
Christian Watson5 rec · 71 yds · 0.3 TD
71rec yds
WR/TE
Matthew Golden5 rec · 64 yds · 0.3 TD
64rec yds
Patriots
QB
Drake Maye21/32 · 233 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
233pass yds
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson12 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
45rush yds
WR/TE
Demario Douglas3 rec · 44 yds · 0.3 TD
44rec yds
WR/TE
Hunter Henry4 rec · 38 yds · 0.1 TD
38rec yds
Road form. The Packers are 2-2 on the road this season, losing by 3.5 points a game.
Home form. The Patriots are 3-0 at home, scoring 30.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NE −2.5 and is now NE −3.5, a 1-point move toward the Patriots.
Rest. The Packers come in on 10 days’ rest, the Patriots on 7.
Tale of the tape
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots
Green Bay PackersNew England Patriots
5-3Record5-3
2-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W1StreakW1
10 daysRest7 days
21.4Points per game23.0
20.5Points allowed20.3
+7
Point differentialseason to date
+22
5.3Yards per play5.9
271Passing yards / game244
61Rushing yards / game123
38%3rd-down conversion40%
52%Red-zone touchdowns55%
15Takeaways8
22Sacks22
11Turnovers15
5.2Yards per play6.7
238Passing yards / game266
69Rushing yards / game150
24%3rd-down conversion46%
40%Red-zone touchdowns60%
5Takeaways4
11Sacks10
6Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Packers’ road games with the Patriots’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Packers
5-3
WWWLW
Wk 8Oct 29vs CAR
Panthers19Packers27
Panthers moneyline +165Packers moneyline −200
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ DET
Packers17Lions20
Packers moneyline +175Lions moneyline −208
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs DAL
Cowboys13Packers23
Cowboys moneyline −115Packers moneyline −105
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CHI
Bears7Packers31
Bears moneyline −122Packers moneyline +100
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ TB
Packers17Buccaneers14
Packers moneyline −156Buccaneers moneyline +130
WFINAL
Patriots
5-3
WWWLW
Wk 8Nov 1@ MIA
Patriots24Dolphins19
Patriots moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +275
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 22@ CHI
Patriots24Bears30
Patriots moneyline +134Bears moneyline −159
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs NYJ
Jets19Patriots26
Jets moneyline +280Patriots moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs LV
Raiders17Patriots45
Raiders moneyline +148Patriots moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ BUF
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC North
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
PACKERS
1
Wins
Avg. points27.0 – 24.0
Avg. total51.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
PATRIOTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 4Lambeau Field
Patriots24Packers27
Patriots moneyline +365Packers moneyline −476
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (GB)+153+153
Moneyline (NE)−182−182
Spread (NE)−2.5down −3.5
Total47.5down 45
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots 45–27 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 4:25 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough. The moneyline had the Packers at +153 and the Patriots at −182.
Our model predicted a final score of Packers 17, Patriots 20. Its picks: the Patriots to win (−179), lost; the Patriots +3.5 (−323), lost; under 54 points (−370), lost. The best pick was under 54 points, at 77% confidence.