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Oregon State vs Boise State prediction, picks and odds

Back to the college football picks NCAA FBS picks Week 11 Saturday, November 14 · 6:00 PM ET
Oregon St
Away · 5-4ML +390
6:00PM Kickoff Sat, Nov 14 · ET
Boise St
ML −556Home · 8-1
SpreadBSU −13.5
Total65.5 points
Kickoff in3d 2h
Predictions3 Comparison Recent games Standings Odds
Updated 2:03 PM ET

Oregon St vs Boise St picks

3 picks · Boise St by 3 · 59 points
Moneyline
BSU MLodds down −588 94%
Boise St wins the game.
Confidence94%
Model70.9% SportsbooksOdds82.2% Edge−11.3
Spread
ORST +21.5odds up −256 84%
Oregon St wins, or loses by 21 points or fewer.
Confidence84%
Model77.6% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge+7.2
TotalBest pick
Under 73.5−256 84%
The two teams score 73 or fewer points between them.
Confidence84%
Model78.6% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+9.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Oregon St07147728
Boise St7100141731
Most likely final scoresORST 28–31 BSU 0.6%ORST 31–34 BSU 0.5%ORST 24–31 BSU 0.5%
Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Oregon StBoise St

Offense

398 Total yards 439
276 Passing yards 211
122 Rushing yards 228
20 First downs 22

Scoring

4 Touchdowns 4
2 Passing touchdowns 2
2 Rushing touchdowns 2
0 Field goals made 1

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1
1 Interceptions thrown 1
1 Fumbles lost 1
0 Sacks allowed 0
54 Penalty yards 57
Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards Over 325.5 Proj. 398 72%
Passing yards Over 219.5 Proj. 277 72%
Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 122 72%
First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73%
Total yards Over 366.5 Proj. 439 72%
Passing yards Over 154.5 Proj. 211 72%
Rushing yards Over 175.5 Proj. 228 72%
First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 72%
Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Oregon St
QB Braden Atkinson20/34 · 256 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.5 INT 256pass yds
RB AJ Newberry9 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 55rush yds
WR/TE Jesse Legree6 rec · 97 yds · 1.0 TD 97rec yds
WR/TE D.C. Temple3 rec · 19 yds · 0.2 TD 19rec yds
Boise St
QB Max Cutforth19/28 · 211 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT 211pass yds
RB Dylan Riley19 carries · 131 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 2 rec 131rush yds
WR/TE Rasean Jones6 rec · 77 yds · 0.3 TD 77rec yds
WR/TE Matt Wagner3 rec · 36 yds · 0.6 TD 36rec yds

Oregon State visits Boise State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 6:00 PM ET. Oregon State comes in at 5-4 and Boise State at 8-1. The moneyline has Oregon State at +390 and Boise State at −556.

Our model predicts a final score of Oregon St 28, Boise St 31. Its picks: Boise State to win (−588); Oregon State +21.5 (−256); under 73.5 points (−256). The best pick is under 73.5 points, at 84% confidence.