Moneyline
MISS MLodds up −115
69%
Ole Miss wins the game.
Confidence69%
Model56.8%
SportsbooksOdds55.0%
Edge+1.8
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma prediction, picks and odds
Updated 3:18 PM ET
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma picks
3 picks · Ole Miss by 2 · 40 pointsSpread
OU +2.5odds down −143
68%
Oklahoma wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence68%
Model47.7%
SportsbooksOdds48.8%
Edge−1.1
TotalBest pick
Under 51.5odds up −143
68%
The two teams score 51 or fewer points between them.
Confidence68%
Model54.4%
SportsbooksOdds54.9%
Edge−0.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Ole Miss0777721
Oklahoma013061319
Most likely final scoresMISS 21–19 OU 0.2%MISS 26–24 OU 0.2%MISS 17–16 OU 0.2%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Ole MissOklahoma
Offense
360
Total yards
369
227
Passing yards
231
133
Rushing yards
138
20
First downs
20
Scoring
3
Touchdowns
2
2
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
1
0
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
57
Penalty yards
61
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 287.5
Proj. 360
72%
Passing yards
Over 170.5
Proj. 227
72%
Rushing yards
Over 80.5
Proj. 133
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Total yards
Over 296.5
Proj. 369
72%
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 138
72%
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Ole Miss
QB
Trinidad Chambliss20/32 · 225 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.9 INT
225pass yds
RB
Shekai MillsKnight10 carries · 46 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
46rush yds
WR/TE
Deuce Alexander5 rec · 67 yds · 0.4 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
Horatio Fields3 rec · 45 yds · 0.7 TD
45rec yds
Oklahoma
QB
John Mateer20/32 · 231 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
231pass yds
RB
Lloyd Avant11 carries · 52 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec
52rush yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Sategna6 rec · 73 yds · 0.2 TD
73rec yds
WR/TE
Rocky Beers4 rec · 58 yds · 0.3 TD
58rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at OU +2.5 and is now OU −1.5, a 4-point move toward Oklahoma.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Ole MissOklahoma
Ole MissOklahoma
6-3Record5-4
L1StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
33.8Points per game22.1
26.0Points allowed19.2
9th SECConference11th SEC
+70
Point differentialseason to date
+26
271Passing yards / game228
146Rushing yards / game111
49%3rd-down conversion39%
12Takeaways13
0Sacks0
14Turnovers15
254Passing yards / game228
147Rushing yards / game101
38%3rd-down conversion42%
7Takeaways7
0Sacks0
6Turnovers8
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Ole Miss’ road games with Oklahoma’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Ole Miss
6-3
WWLWL
Wk 10Nov 7vs UGA
Georgia42Ole Miss7
Georgia moneyline −167Ole Miss moneyline +138
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs AUB
Auburn15Ole Miss45
Auburn moneyline +325Ole Miss moneyline −476
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ TEX
Ole Miss27Texas34
Ole Miss moneyline +130Texas moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs MIZ
Missouri3Ole Miss31
Missouri moneyline +160Ole Miss moneyline −204
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ VAN
Ole Miss52Vanderbilt17
Ole Miss moneyline −385Vanderbilt moneyline +235
WFINAL
Oklahoma
5-4
WLWLW
Wk 10Nov 7@ FLA
Oklahoma23Florida7
Oklahoma moneyline +160Florida moneyline −192
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs SC
South Carolina42Oklahoma25
South Carolina moneyline +134Oklahoma moneyline −179
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ MSST
Oklahoma23Mississippi St15
Oklahoma moneyline −127Mississippi St moneyline −104
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs UK
Kentucky21Oklahoma13
Kentucky moneyline +205Oklahoma moneyline −270
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs TEX
Texas24Oklahoma27
Texas moneyline −357Oklahoma moneyline +225
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameSEC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
OLE MISS
1
Wins
Avg. points34.0 – 26.0
Avg. total60.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
OKLAHOMA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Memorial Stadium (Norman
Oklahoma26Ole Miss34
Oklahoma moneyline +160Ole Miss moneyline −208
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MISS)−104up +105
Moneyline (OU)−118down −128
Spread (OU)+2.5down −1.5
Total50.5down 49.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Ole Miss visits Oklahoma in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 4:15 PM ET. Ole Miss comes in at 6-3 and Oklahoma at 5-4. The moneyline has Ole Miss at +105 and Oklahoma at −128.
Our model predicts a final score of Ole Miss 21, Oklahoma 19. Its picks: Ole Miss to win (−115); Oklahoma +2.5 (−143); under 51.5 points (−143). The best pick is under 51.5 points, at 68% confidence.