Oklahoma vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OU	3	7	10	3	23
MSST	0	0	7	8	15

Oklahoma vs Mississippi St picks

3 picks · Oklahoma by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

OU MLodds up −130 Won 85%

Oklahoma wins the game.

Confidence85%

Model63.3% SportsbooksOdds63.3% Edge0.0

SpreadBest pick

OU +3.5odds up −192 Won 77%

Oklahoma wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model72.5% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge+2.0

Total

Over 37.5odds down −333 Won 74%

The two teams score 38 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model79.3% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+10.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Oklahoma014771428

Mississippi St014071421

Most likely final scoresOU 28–21 MSST 0.6%OU 24–21 MSST 0.6%OU 30–27 MSST 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

OklahomaMississippi St

Offense

370▲ 469 Total yards ▲ 352337

253▲ 283 Passing yards ▼ 186214

117▲ 186 Rushing yards ▲ 166123

20= 20 First downs ▼ 1718

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 23

2= 2 Passing touchdowns = 22

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

2▲ 3 Field goals made = 00

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

60▲ 75 Penalty yards ▲ 7555

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 370 72% Won · 469

Passing yards Over 196.5 Proj. 253 72% Won · 283

Rushing yards Over 64.5 Proj. 117 72% Won · 186

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 20

Total yards Over 263.5 Proj. 337 72% Won · 352

Passing yards Over 156.5 Proj. 214 72% Won · 186

Rushing yards Over 70.5 Proj. 123 72% Won · 166

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Won · 17

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Oklahoma

QB John Mateer22/33 · 252 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 252pass yds

RB Lloyd Avant10 carries · 56 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 56rush yds

WR/TE Isaiah Sategna6 rec · 80 yds · 0.4 TD 80rec yds

WR/TE Rocky Beers5 rec · 63 yds · 0.7 TD 63rec yds

Mississippi St

QB Parker Puckett7/11 · 55 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.2 INT 55pass yds

RB Kolin Wilson8 carries · 23 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 23rush yds

WR/TE Anthony Evans III7 rec · 79 yds · 0.6 TD 79rec yds

WR/TE Sanfrisco Magee3 rec · 38 yds · 0.6 TD 38rec yds

Road form. Oklahoma is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 17.5 points a game.

Home form. Mississippi St is 2-1 at home, scoring 38.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MSST +2.5 and is now MSST +1.5, a 1-point move toward Mississippi St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

OklahomaMississippi State

3-3Record4-2

0-2 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L1StreakL2

7 daysRest7 days

21.3Points per game32.5

18.2Points allowed28.5

+19 Point differentialseason to date +24

219Passing yards / game278

93Rushing yards / game177

34%3rd-down conversion46%

6Takeaways5

0Sacks0

14Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Oklahoma’s road games with Mississippi St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.