Oklahoma vs Florida Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OU	3	10	0	10	23
FLA	0	7	0	0	7

Oklahoma vs Florida picks

3 picks · Florida by 3 · 45 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

FLA MLodds up −208 Lost 66%

Florida wins the game.

Confidence66%

Model55.4% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge−12.9

SpreadBest pick

OU +13.5odds down −313 Won 78%

Oklahoma wins, or loses by 13 points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model75.8% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+6.6

Total

Over 40odds up −217 Lost 74%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them (exactly 40 is a push).

Confidence74%

Model67.9% SportsbooksOdds68.5% Edge−0.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Oklahoma77071421

Florida0101401024

Most likely final scoresOU 21–24 FLA 0.6%OU 21–28 FLA 0.6%OU 28–31 FLA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

OklahomaFlorida

Offense

346▲ 351 Total yards ▼ 203349

225▼ 207 Passing yards ▼ 133213

121▲ 144 Rushing yards ▼ 70136

19▲ 20 First downs ▼ 1118

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▼ 13

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0▲ 3 Field goals made ▼ 01

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▲ 70 Penalty yards ▼ 4061

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 272.5 Proj. 346 72% Won · 351

Passing yards Over 167.5 Proj. 225 72% Won · 207

Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 121 72% Won · 144

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 70% Won · 20

Total yards Over 276.5 Proj. 349 72% Lost · 203

Passing yards Over 156.5 Proj. 213 72% Lost · 133

Rushing yards Over 84.5 Proj. 136 72% Lost · 70

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Lost · 11

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Oklahoma

QB John Mateer21/32 · 225 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 225pass yds

RB Lloyd Avant9 carries · 48 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec 48rush yds

WR/TE Isaiah Sategna6 rec · 80 yds · 0.4 TD 80rec yds

WR/TE Rocky Beers4 rec · 49 yds · 0.7 TD 49rec yds

Florida

QB Tramell Jones Jr.10/15 · 105 pass yds · 1.2 TD · 0.4 INT 105pass yds

RB Jadan Baugh18 carries · 75 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 75rush yds

WR/TE Bailey Stockton4 rec · 48 yds · 0.3 TD 48rec yds

WR/TE Dallas Wilson3 rec · 42 yds · 0.6 TD 42rec yds

Road form. Oklahoma is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 9.0 points a game.

Home form. Florida is 3-1 at home, scoring 47.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at FLA −5.5 and is now FLA −4.5, a 1-point move toward Oklahoma.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

OklahomaFlorida

4-4Record5-3

1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

22.0Points per game35.6

20.8Points allowed28.1

+10 Point differentialseason to date +60

230Passing yards / game249

107Rushing yards / game176

36%3rd-down conversion44%

11Takeaways10

0Sacks0

15Turnovers11

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Oklahoma’s road games with Florida’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.