Missouri vs Ole Miss Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MIZ	3	0	0	0	3
MISS	7	14	0	10	31

Missouri vs Ole Miss picks

3 picks · Ole Miss by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

MISS MLodds up −200 Won 84%

Ole Miss wins the game.

Confidence84%

Model63.1% SportsbooksOdds67.4% Edge−4.3

Spread

MIZ +13.5−263 Lost 79%

Missouri wins, or loses by 13 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model68.4% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge−0.8

TotalBest pick

Under 68.5odds down −294 Won 84%

The two teams score 68 or fewer points between them.

Confidence84%

Model78.8% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge+8.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Missouri140071421

Ole Miss0140141428

Most likely final scoresMIZ 21–28 MISS 0.6%MIZ 24–27 MISS 0.5%MIZ 24–31 MISS 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MissouriOle Miss

Offense

376▲ 378 Total yards ▲ 483381

207▲ 339 Passing yards ▼ 241265

169▼ 39 Rushing yards ▲ 242116

20▼ 17 First downs ▲ 2621

Scoring

3▼ 0 Touchdowns ▲ 43

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

61▼ 55 Penalty yards ▼ 5561

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 303.5 Proj. 376 72% Won · 378

Passing yards Over 149.5 Proj. 207 72% Won · 339

Rushing yards Over 116.5 Proj. 169 72% Lost · 39

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 17

Total yards Over 308.5 Proj. 382 72% Won · 483

Passing yards Over 208.5 Proj. 265 72% Won · 241

Rushing yards Over 64.5 Proj. 116 72% Won · 242

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 72% Won · 26

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Missouri

QB Austin Simmons16/27 · 193 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 193pass yds

RB Jamal Roberts25 carries · 123 rush yds · 1.4 TD · 2 rec 123rush yds

WR/TE Cayden Lee6 rec · 80 yds · 0.4 TD 80rec yds

WR/TE Donovan Olugbode5 rec · 63 yds · 0.5 TD 63rec yds

Ole Miss

QB Trinidad Chambliss22/34 · 253 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 253pass yds

RB Makhi Frazier8 carries · 29 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 29rush yds

WR/TE Deuce Alexander6 rec · 89 yds · 0.9 TD 89rec yds

WR/TE Caleb Odom4 rec · 50 yds · 0.2 TD 50rec yds

Road form. Missouri is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 5.0 points a game.

Home form. Ole Miss is 3-0 at home, scoring 38.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MISS −6.5 and is now MISS −4.5, a 2-point move toward Missouri.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

MissouriOle Miss

5-1Record4-1

1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W2StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

35.8Points per game38.8

17.7Points allowed28.0

+109 Point differentialseason to date +54

254Passing yards / game301

176Rushing yards / game134

43%3rd-down conversion44%

8Takeaways6

0Sacks0

3Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Missouri’s road games with Ole Miss’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.