Missouri vs Arkansas Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MIZ	10	3	14	7	34
ARK	0	7	0	3	10

Missouri vs Arkansas picks

3 picks · Missouri by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

MIZ MLodds down −435 Won 91%

Missouri wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model66.7% SportsbooksOdds76.2% Edge−9.5

Spread

ARK +10.5odds up −119 Lost 75%

Arkansas wins, or loses by 10 points or fewer.

Confidence75%

Model61.4% SportsbooksOdds50.9% Edge+10.5

Total

Over 48.5odds up −112 Lost 74%

The two teams score 49 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model55.8% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+5.8

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Missouri147072128

Arkansas0777721

Most likely final scoresMIZ 28–21 ARK 0.7%MIZ 31–28 ARK 0.5%MIZ 27–24 ARK 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MissouriArkansas

Offense

404▼ 390 Total yards ▼ 288349

238▼ 179 Passing yards ▲ 229227

166▲ 211 Rushing yards ▼ 59122

21▲ 22 First downs ▼ 1820

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▼ 13

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 11

2= 2 Field goals made ▲ 10

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 41

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▲ 31

0 Sacks allowed 0

55▲ 80 Penalty yards ▲ 8560

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 331.5 Proj. 404 72% Won · 390

Passing yards Over 180.5 Proj. 238 72% Lost · 179

Rushing yards Over 113.5 Proj. 166 72% Won · 211

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 70% Won · 22

Total yards Over 275.5 Proj. 349 72% Won · 288

Passing yards Over 169.5 Proj. 227 72% Won · 229

Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 122 72% Lost · 59

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 18

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Missouri

QB Austin Simmons18/29 · 238 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 238pass yds

RB Jamal Roberts27 carries · 142 rush yds · 1.7 TD · 2 rec 142rush yds

WR/TE Cayden Lee7 rec · 90 yds · 0.4 TD 90rec yds

WR/TE Donovan Olugbode5 rec · 75 yds · 0.4 TD 75rec yds

Arkansas

QB KJ Jackson17/29 · 197 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.7 INT 197pass yds

RB Braylen Russell7 carries · 30 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 1 rec 30rush yds

WR/TE Chris Marshall6 rec · 93 yds · 0.8 TD 93rec yds

WR/TE Sutton Smith2 rec · 11 yds · 0.0 TD 11rec yds

Road form. Missouri is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 6.0 points a game.

Home form. Arkansas is 2-2 at home, scoring 24.8 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 49.5 and is now 48.

Rest. Both teams come in on 14 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

MissouriArkansas

5-2Record3-4

1-2 roadRoad / home2-2 home

L1StreakW1

14 daysRest14 days

31.1Points per game21.0

19.6Points allowed26.7

+81 Point differentialseason to date −40

266Passing yards / game231

157Rushing yards / game112

41%3rd-down conversion42%

9Takeaways9

0Sacks0

4Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Missouri’s road games with Arkansas’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.