Moneyline
TEX MLodds down −2000
Won 95%
Texas wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model85.2%
SportsbooksOdds93.0%
Edge−7.8
Mississippi State vs Texas prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| TEX | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
MISSISSIPPI ST 15%
Pre-game win chance
85% TEXAS
TEX by 28 · 48 points
Updated Nov 1, 3:54 AM ET
Mississippi St vs Texas picks
3 picks · Texas by 28 · 48 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
MSST +28.5odds down −303
Won 78%
Mississippi St wins, or loses by 28 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model76.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge+7.4
Total
Over 43.5odds up −244
Lost 74%
The two teams score 44 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model77.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+8.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Mississippi St0307310
Texas7170142438
Most likely final scoresMSST 10–38 TEX 0.5%MSST 14–42 TEX 0.5%MSST 24–27 TEX 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Mississippi StTexas
Offense
332▼ 187
Total yards
▼ 280419
209▼ 119
Passing yards
▼ 220262
123▼ 68
Rushing yards
▼ 60157
20▼ 12
First downs
▼ 1322
Scoring
1▼ 0
Touchdowns
▼ 45
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 33
0= 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 02
1= 1
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
61▼ 50
Penalty yards
▼ 4269
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 258.5
Proj. 332
72%
Lost · 187
Passing yards
Over 151.5
Proj. 209
72%
Lost · 119
Rushing yards
Over 70.5
Proj. 123
72%
Lost · 68
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Lost · 12
Total yards
Over 346.5
Proj. 419
72%
Lost · 280
Passing yards
Over 205.5
Proj. 262
72%
Won · 220
Rushing yards
Over 104.5
Proj. 157
72%
Lost · 60
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Lost · 13
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Mississippi St
QB
Parker Puckett13/20 · 108 pass yds · 0.2 TD · 0.4 INT
108pass yds
RB
Kolin Wilson8 carries · 23 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
23rush yds
WR/TE
Anthony Evans III8 rec · 77 yds · 0.3 TD
77rec yds
WR/TE
Sanfrisco Magee3 rec · 47 yds · 0.3 TD
47rec yds
Texas
QB
Arch Manning21/31 · 260 pass yds · 3.0 TD · 0.7 INT
260pass yds
RB
Raleek Brown12 carries · 71 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
71rush yds
WR/TE
Ryan Wingo5 rec · 73 yds · 1.1 TD
73rec yds
WR/TE
Emmett Mosley V4 rec · 62 yds · 0.0 TD
62rec yds
Road form. Mississippi St is 2-1 on the road this season.
Home form. Texas is 4-1 at home, scoring 34.2 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at TEX −21.5 and is now TEX −20.5, a 1-point move toward Mississippi St.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Mississippi St has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Mississippi StateTexas
Mississippi StateTexas
4-3Record5-2
2-1 roadRoad / home4-1 home
L3StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
30.0Points per game30.7
27.7Points allowed19.1
+16
Point differentialseason to date
+81
265Passing yards / game224
175Rushing yards / game145
42%3rd-down conversion39%
6Takeaways8
0Sacks0
10Turnovers11
202Passing yards / game222
186Rushing yards / game167
50%3rd-down conversion45%
3Takeaways8
0Sacks0
3Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Mississippi St’s road games with Texas’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Mississippi St
4-3
WWLLL
Wk 8Oct 24vs OU
Oklahoma23Mississippi St15
Oklahoma moneyline −127Mississippi St moneyline −104
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ LSU
Mississippi St0LSU31
Mississippi St moneyline +650LSU moneyline −1111
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ALA
Alabama56Mississippi St23
Alabama moneyline −222Mississippi St moneyline +170
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MIZ
Missouri24Mississippi St31
Missouri moneyline +142Mississippi St moneyline −189
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ SC
Mississippi St41South Carolina34
Mississippi St moneyline +132South Carolina moneyline −172
WFINAL
Texas
5-2
WWLLW
Wk 8Oct 24vs MISS
Ole Miss27Texas34
Ole Miss moneyline +130Texas moneyline −164
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs FLA
Florida27Texas24
Florida moneyline +350Texas moneyline −476
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ OU
Texas24Oklahoma27
Texas moneyline −357Oklahoma moneyline +225
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TENN
Texas20Tennessee17
Texas moneyline −208Tennessee moneyline +160
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs UTSA
UTSA6Texas30
UTSA moneyline +1200Texas moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSEC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
MISSISSIPPI ST
0
Wins
Avg. points38.0 – 45.0
Avg. total83.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
TEXAS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Davis Wade Stadium
Mississippi St38Texas45
Mississippi St moneyline −303Texas moneyline +225
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MSST)+900down +875
Moneyline (TEX)−2000up −1667
Spread (TEX)−21.5up −20.5
Total50.550.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Texas beat Mississippi State 31–3 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Mississippi State at +875 and Texas at −1667.
Our model predicted a final score of Mississippi St 10, Texas 38. Its picks: Texas to win (−2000), won; Mississippi State +28.5 (−303), won; over 43.5 points (−244), lost. The best pick was Mississippi State +28.5, at 78% confidence.