Mississippi State vs LSU Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MSST	0	0	0	0	0
LSU	14	7	10	0	31

Mississippi St vs LSU picks

3 picks · LSU by 3 · 65 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

LSU MLodds down −1111 Won 94%

LSU wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model72.6% SportsbooksOdds83.8% Edge−11.2

Spread

MSST +21.5odds up −167 Lost 83%

Mississippi St wins, or loses by 21 points or fewer.

Confidence83%

Model75.5% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+6.3

TotalBest pick

Over 50.5odds up −204 Lost 78%

The two teams score 51 or more points between them.

Confidence78%

Model69.4% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge−0.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Mississippi St0101381031

LSU1010772034

Most likely final scoresMSST 31–34 LSU 0.5%MSST 28–35 LSU 0.5%MSST 21–38 LSU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Mississippi StLSU

Offense

346▼ 291 Total yards ▼ 379440

228▼ 121 Passing yards ▲ 289277

118▲ 170 Rushing yards ▼ 90163

19▼ 18 First downs ▲ 2823

Scoring

4▼ 0 Touchdowns = 44

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▲ 42

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

1▼ 0 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▲ 75 Penalty yards ▼ 3062

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 273.5 Proj. 347 72% Won · 291

Passing yards Over 171.5 Proj. 229 72% Lost · 121

Rushing yards Over 65.5 Proj. 118 72% Won · 170

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 19 75% Won · 18

Total yards Over 366.5 Proj. 440 72% Won · 379

Passing yards Over 219.5 Proj. 277 72% Won · 289

Rushing yards Over 110.5 Proj. 163 72% Lost · 90

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 71% Won · 28

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Mississippi St

QB Kamario Taylor18/29 · 215 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT 215pass yds

RB Fluff Bothwell14 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec 53rush yds

WR/TE Anthony Evans III7 rec · 85 yds · 0.6 TD 85rec yds

WR/TE Marquis Johnson2 rec · 32 yds · 0.2 TD 32rec yds

LSU

QB Sam Leavitt19/29 · 222 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT 222pass yds

RB Dilin Jones15 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 61rush yds

WR/TE Winston Watkins5 rec · 62 yds · 0.3 TD 62rec yds

WR/TE Jackson Harris3 rec · 55 yds · 0.5 TD 55rec yds

Road form. Mississippi St is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 16.0 points a game.

Home form. LSU is 4-0 at home, scoring 48.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at LSU −11.5 and is now LSU −18.5, a 7-point move toward LSU.

Rest. Mississippi St comes in on 14 days’ rest, LSU on 7.

Tale of the tape

Mississippi StateLSU

4-1Record4-2

2-0 roadRoad / home4-0 home

L1StreakL1

14 daysRest7 days

39.0Points per game42.0

28.0Points allowed18.5

+55 Point differentialseason to date +141

309Passing yards / game311

178Rushing yards / game214

46%3rd-down conversion52%

4Takeaways8

0Sacks0

7Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Mississippi St’s road games with LSU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.