LSU vs Auburn Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LSU	10	21	0	7	38
AUB	3	7	0	7	17

LSU vs Auburn picks

3 picks · LSU by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

LSU MLodds up −323 Won 83%

LSU wins the game.

Confidence83%

Model66.0% SportsbooksOdds74.5% Edge−8.5

Spread

AUB +15.5odds down −263 Lost 80%

Auburn wins, or loses by 15 points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model70.4% SportsbooksOdds68.6% Edge+1.8

Total

Under 57.5odds up −196 Won 74%

The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.9% SportsbooksOdds67.9% Edge0.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

LSU07021728

Auburn0777721

Most likely final scoresLSU 28–21 AUB 0.6%LSU 21–14 AUB 0.6%LSU 24–21 AUB 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

LSUAuburn

Offense

410▲ 552 Total yards ▼ 271336

258▲ 387 Passing yards ▲ 204193

152▲ 165 Rushing yards ▼ 67143

23▲ 29 First downs ▼ 1618

Scoring

4▲ 5 Touchdowns ▼ 23

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns = 22

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

52▼ 50 Penalty yards ▼ 4857

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 337.5 Proj. 410 72% Won · 552

Passing yards Over 200.5 Proj. 258 72% Won · 387

Rushing yards Over 100.5 Proj. 153 72% Won · 165

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 73% Won · 29

Total yards Over 262.5 Proj. 336 72% Won · 271

Passing yards Over 136.5 Proj. 193 72% Won · 204

Rushing yards Over 90.5 Proj. 143 72% Lost · 67

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 72% Won · 16

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

LSU

QB Sam Leavitt21/29 · 220 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.9 INT 220pass yds

RB Dilin Jones17 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 4 rec 65rush yds

WR/TE Jackson Harris4 rec · 60 yds · 0.7 TD 60rec yds

WR/TE Winston Watkins4 rec · 48 yds · 0.1 TD 48rec yds

Auburn

QB Byrum Brown18/29 · 183 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT 183pass yds

RB Jeremiah Cobb9 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Keshaun Singleton5 rec · 56 yds · 0.2 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Chas Nimrod5 rec · 51 yds · 0.3 TD 51rec yds

Road form. LSU is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 4.5 points a game.

Home form. Auburn is 3-1 at home, scoring 30.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at AUB +5.5 and is now AUB +7.5, a 2-point move toward LSU.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

LSUAuburn

5-2Record4-2

0-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W1StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

40.4Points per game26.8

15.9Points allowed21.8

+172 Point differentialseason to date +30

308Passing yards / game212

196Rushing yards / game178

53%3rd-down conversion46%

9Takeaways11

0Sacks0

11Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares LSU’s road games with Auburn’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.