Moneyline
ULL MLodds down −526
Lost 93%
Louisiana wins the game.
Confidence93%
Model66.6%
SportsbooksOdds78.7%
Edge−12.1
Louisiana vs Southern Miss prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULL | 7 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 31 |
| USM | 7 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 35 |
LOUISIANA 67%
Pre-game win chance
33% SOUTHERN MISS
ULL by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 24, 9:05 PM ET
Louisiana vs Southern Miss picks
3 picks · Louisiana by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
USM +18.5odds up −227
Won 78%
Southern Miss wins, or loses by 18 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model76.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+7.5
Total
Over 45.5−250
Won 74%
The two teams score 46 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model68.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+0.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Louisiana714072128
Southern Miss0777721
Most likely final scoresULL 28–21 USM 0.6%ULL 31–24 USM 0.5%ULL 27–24 USM 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
LouisianaSouthern Miss
Offense
403▲ 417
Total yards
▲ 450371
180▲ 299
Passing yards
▼ 164244
223▼ 118
Rushing yards
▲ 286127
23▼ 21
First downs
▲ 2420
Scoring
4= 4
Touchdowns
▲ 53
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
3▼ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 41
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
52▲ 65
Penalty yards
= 5858
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 329.5
Proj. 403
72%
Won · 417
Passing yards
Over 123.5
Proj. 180
72%
Won · 299
Rushing yards
Over 170.5
Proj. 223
72%
Lost · 118
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 23
69%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 297.5
Proj. 371
72%
Won · 450
Passing yards
Over 187.5
Proj. 244
72%
Lost · 164
Rushing yards
Over 74.5
Proj. 127
72%
Won · 286
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Louisiana
QB
D'Wayne' Winfield16/24 · 172 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
172pass yds
RB
Steven Blanco9 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec
37rush yds
WR/TE
Trenton Chaney3 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD
38rec yds
WR/TE
Kedarius Wade2 rec · 36 yds · 0.7 TD
36rec yds
Southern Miss
QB
Landry Lyddy14/22 · 161 pass yds · 1.4 TD · 0.4 INT
161pass yds
RB
Steven Robinson16 carries · 68 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
68rush yds
WR/TE
Mario Sanders II6 rec · 77 yds · 1.0 TD
77rec yds
WR/TE
Kaden Saunders3 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD
38rec yds
Road form. Louisiana is 1-2 on the road this season, winning by 2.3 points a game.
Home form. Southern Miss is 1-2 at home, scoring 27.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at USM +10.5 and is now USM +12.5, a 2-point move toward Louisiana.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
LouisianaSouthern Miss
LouisianaSouthern Miss
5-2Record1-5
1-2 roadRoad / home1-2 home
W1StreakL5
7 daysRest7 days
30.0Points per game24.2
19.3Points allowed32.7
+75
Point differentialseason to date
−51
178Passing yards / game261
199Rushing yards / game134
42%3rd-down conversion33%
14Takeaways7
0Sacks0
10Turnovers10
203Passing yards / game244
146Rushing yards / game167
34%3rd-down conversion37%
7Takeaways5
0Sacks0
4Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Louisiana’s road games with Southern Miss’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Louisiana
5-2
WWWLW
Wk 7Oct 17vs TROY
Troy6Louisiana33
Troy moneyline +128Louisiana moneyline −156
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ LT
Louisiana31Louisiana Tech32
Louisiana moneyline +121Louisiana Tech moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ARST
Arkansas St20Louisiana23
Arkansas St moneyline +170Louisiana moneyline −238
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ CLT
Louisiana34Charlotte7
Louisiana moneyline −417Charlotte moneyline +285
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs UAB
UAB14Louisiana21
UAB moneyline +200Louisiana moneyline −278
WFINAL
Southern Miss
1-5
LLLLL
Wk 7Oct 17vs ARST
Arkansas St23Southern Miss13
Arkansas St moneyline −233Southern Miss moneyline +185
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6@ TROY
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TULN
Southern Miss21Tulane24
Southern Miss moneyline +580Tulane moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs CONN
UConn48Southern Miss20
UConn moneyline −167Southern Miss moneyline +130
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ AUB
Southern Miss8Auburn43
Southern Miss moneyline +1400Auburn moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
LOUISIANA
0
Wins
Avg. points10.0 – 22.0
Avg. total32.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
SOUTHERN MISS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 8Cajun Field
Louisiana10Southern Miss22
Louisiana moneyline −204Southern Miss moneyline +152
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ULL)−455down −556
Moneyline (USM)+310up +360
Spread (USM)+10.5up +12.5
Total52.552.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Southern Miss beat Louisiana 35–31 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 5:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Louisiana at −556 and Southern Miss at +360.
Our model predicted a final score of Louisiana 28, Southern Miss 21. Its picks: Louisiana to win (−526), lost; Southern Miss +18.5 (−227), won; over 45.5 points (−250), won. The best pick was Southern Miss +18.5, at 78% confidence.