Moneyline
LT MLodds down −278
Won 93%
Louisiana Tech wins the game.
Confidence93%
Model67.6%
SportsbooksOdds66.9%
Edge+0.7
Louisiana Tech vs Troy prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 3 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 41 |
| TROY | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
LOUISIANA TECH 68%
Pre-game win chance
32% TROY
LT by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 7, 7:41 PM ET
Louisiana Tech vs Troy picks
3 picks · Louisiana Tech by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
LT +2.5odds down −294
Won 77%
Louisiana Tech wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model71.3%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+2.1
Total
Over 40.5odds down −256
Won 74%
The two teams score 41 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.1%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge+1.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Louisiana Tech77771428
Troy014071421
Most likely final scoresLT 28–21 TROY 0.7%LT 24–21 TROY 0.6%LT 28–14 TROY 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Louisiana TechTroy
Offense
372▼ 351
Total yards
▼ 262346
217▲ 245
Passing yards
▲ 215190
155▼ 106
Rushing yards
▼ 47156
20▲ 22
First downs
▼ 1619
Scoring
4= 4
Touchdowns
▼ 13
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 51
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▲ 41
0
Sacks allowed
0
55▲ 96
Penalty yards
▲ 6864
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 299.5
Proj. 372
72%
Won · 351
Passing yards
Over 160.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 245
Rushing yards
Over 102.5
Proj. 155
72%
Won · 106
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 273.5
Proj. 346
72%
Lost · 262
Passing yards
Over 133.5
Proj. 191
72%
Won · 215
Rushing yards
Over 103.5
Proj. 156
72%
Lost · 47
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Won · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Louisiana Tech
QB
Blake Baker15/23 · 165 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.0 INT
165pass yds
RB
Andrew Burnette13 carries · 50 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
50rush yds
WR/TE
Eli Finley5 rec · 59 yds · 0.7 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Marcus Calwise Jr.3 rec · 43 yds · 0.2 TD
43rec yds
Troy
QB
Tucker Kilcrease10/18 · 131 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
131pass yds
RB
Jordan Lovett9 carries · 42 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 2 rec
42rush yds
WR/TE
Jace Petty2 rec · 32 yds · 0.0 TD
32rec yds
WR/TE
TJ Lott2 rec · 28 yds · 0.0 TD
28rec yds
Road form. Louisiana Tech is 2-2 on the road this season, losing by 2.3 points a game.
Home form. Troy is 3-1 at home, scoring 31.8 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 45.5 and is now 47.5.
Rest. Louisiana Tech comes in on 7 days’ rest, Troy on 9.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Louisiana TechTroy
Louisiana TechTroy
6-2Record4-4
2-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W5StreakW1
7 daysRest9 days
32.6Points per game23.0
20.9Points allowed24.4
+94
Point differentialseason to date
−11
242Passing yards / game177
146Rushing yards / game194
44%3rd-down conversion33%
17Takeaways13
0Sacks0
8Turnovers10
185Passing yards / game160
102Rushing yards / game248
34%3rd-down conversion34%
11Takeaways6
0Sacks0
6Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Louisiana Tech’s road games with Troy’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Louisiana Tech
6-2
WWWWW
Wk 9Oct 31@ USA
Louisiana Tech35South Alabama20
Louisiana Tech moneyline −250South Alabama moneyline +180
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs ODU
Old Dominion0Louisiana Tech26
Old Dominion moneyline +425Louisiana Tech moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ULM
Louisiana Tech24UL Monroe0
Louisiana Tech moneyline −714UL Monroe moneyline +480
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs ULL
Louisiana31Louisiana Tech32
Louisiana moneyline +121Louisiana Tech moneyline −164
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ARMY
Army29Louisiana Tech31
Army moneyline −112Louisiana Tech moneyline −112
WFINAL
Troy
4-4
LWLLW
Wk 9Oct 29@ JMU
Troy24James Madison21
Troy moneyline +750James Madison moneyline −1429
WF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24vs ULM
UL Monroe21Troy14
UL Monroe moneyline +475Troy moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ULL
Troy6Louisiana33
Troy moneyline +128Louisiana moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6vs USM
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ USU
Troy10Utah State21
Troy moneyline +112Utah State moneyline −149
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (LT)−294−294
Moneyline (TROY)+215+215
Spread (TROY)+6.5+6.5
Total45.5up 47.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Louisiana Tech beat Troy 41–17 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 4:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Louisiana Tech at −294 and Troy at +215.
Our model predicted a final score of Louisiana Tech 28, Troy 21. Its picks: Louisiana Tech to win (−278), won; Louisiana Tech +2.5 (−294), won; over 40.5 points (−256), won. The best pick was Louisiana Tech +2.5, at 77% confidence.