Moneyline
LT MLodds down −250
Won 86%
Louisiana Tech wins the game.
Confidence86%
Model63.9%
SportsbooksOdds65.6%
Edge−1.7
Louisiana Tech vs South Alabama prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LT | 7 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 35 |
| USA | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
LOUISIANA TECH 64%
Pre-game win chance
36% SOUTH ALABAMA
LT by 3 · 59 points
Updated Oct 31, 6:25 PM ET
Louisiana Tech vs South Alabama picks
3 picks · Louisiana Tech by 3 · 59 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
USA +12.5odds up −238
Lost 76%
South Alabama wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.
Confidence76%
Model67.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge−1.6
Total
Under 65.5odds up −238
Won 74%
The two teams score 65 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model76.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+8.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Louisiana Tech377141031
South Alabama770141428
Most likely final scoresLT 31–28 USA 0.6%LT 24–21 USA 0.6%LT 31–24 USA 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Offense
400▼ 315
Total yards
▲ 397356
241▼ 194
Passing yards
▼ 192196
159▼ 121
Rushing yards
▲ 205160
21▼ 16
First downs
▲ 2419
Scoring
4= 4
Touchdowns
= 33
2▲ 4
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▼ 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
1▼ 0
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
57▼ 29
Penalty yards
▲ 10059
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 327.5
Proj. 400
72%
Lost · 315
Passing yards
Over 183.5
Proj. 241
72%
Won · 194
Rushing yards
Over 106.5
Proj. 159
72%
Won · 121
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
71%
Lost · 16
Total yards
Over 282.5
Proj. 356
72%
Won · 397
Passing yards
Over 138.5
Proj. 196
72%
Won · 192
Rushing yards
Over 107.5
Proj. 160
72%
Won · 205
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
73%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Louisiana Tech
QB
Blake Baker17/25 · 183 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.3 INT
183pass yds
RB
Andrew Burnette12 carries · 59 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec
59rush yds
WR/TE
Jalen Mickens6 rec · 76 yds · 0.4 TD
76rec yds
WR/TE
Eli Finley6 rec · 68 yds · 0.9 TD
68rec yds
South Alabama
QB
Jared Hollins16/28 · 196 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
196pass yds
RB
Keenan Phillips12 carries · 57 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec
57rush yds
WR/TE
Anthony Eager2 rec · 56 yds · 0.5 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Brendan Jenkins4 rec · 53 yds · 0.2 TD
53rec yds
Road form. Louisiana Tech is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 8.0 points a game.
Home form. South Alabama is 3-0 at home, scoring 44.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at USA +4.5 and is now USA +6.5, a 2-point move toward Louisiana Tech.
Rest. Louisiana Tech comes in on 7 days’ rest, South Alabama on 11.
Division game. Two West rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
Louisiana TechSouth Alabama
5-2Record4-3
1-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W4StreakL1
7 daysRest11 days
32.3Points per game35.1
21.0Points allowed32.4
+79
Point differentialseason to date
+19
249Passing yards / game208
150Rushing yards / game214
47%3rd-down conversion40%
15Takeaways11
0Sacks0
8Turnovers4
182Passing yards / game222
96Rushing yards / game252
37%3rd-down conversion47%
9Takeaways6
0Sacks0
6Turnovers0
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Louisiana Tech’s road games with South Alabama’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Louisiana Tech
5-2
LWWWW
Wk 8Oct 24vs ODU
Old Dominion0Louisiana Tech26
Old Dominion moneyline +425Louisiana Tech moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ ULM
Louisiana Tech24UL Monroe0
Louisiana Tech moneyline −714UL Monroe moneyline +480
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs ULL
Louisiana31Louisiana Tech32
Louisiana moneyline +121Louisiana Tech moneyline −164
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ARMY
Army29Louisiana Tech31
Army moneyline −112Louisiana Tech moneyline −112
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ BAY
Louisiana Tech19Baylor36
Louisiana Tech moneyline +700Baylor moneyline −1429
LFINAL
South Alabama
4-3
WLWWL
Wk 8Oct 20@ MRSH
South Alabama13Marshall20
South Alabama moneyline −122Marshall moneyline +100
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ ARST
South Alabama56Arkansas St49
South Alabama: no odds on recordArkansas St: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs ULM
UL Monroe35South Alabama52
UL Monroe: no odds on recordSouth Alabama: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ UK
South Alabama21Kentucky45
South Alabama moneyline +720Kentucky moneyline −2000
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs OHIO
Ohio36South Alabama41
Ohio moneyline +200South Alabama moneyline −286
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (LT)−250−250
Moneyline (USA)+180+180
Spread (USA)+4.5up +6.5
Total57.557.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Louisiana Tech beat South Alabama 35–20 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 3:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Louisiana Tech at −250 and South Alabama at +180.
Our model predicted a final score of Louisiana Tech 31, South Alabama 28. Its picks: Louisiana Tech to win (−250), won; South Alabama +12.5 (−238), lost; under 65.5 points (−238), won. The best pick was South Alabama +12.5, at 76% confidence.