MoneylineBest pick
DET MLodds up −313
Won 82%
The Lions win the game.
Confidence82%
Model66.1%
SportsbooksOdds75.3%
Edge−9.2
Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 4:02 PM ET
Lions vs Dolphins picks
3 picks · Lions by 3 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
MIA +13.5odds down −278
Won 77%
The Dolphins win, or lose by 13 points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model71.2%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+2.9
Total
Under 56.5odds down −250
Won 76%
The two teams score 56 or fewer points between them.
Confidence76%
Model69.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+1.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Lions0100131023
Dolphins0101001020
Most likely final scoresDET 23–20 MIA 1.0%DET 27–24 MIA 0.8%DET 20–17 MIA 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
LionsDolphins
Offense
372▼ 270
Total yards
▼ 228324
245▼ 168
Passing yards
▼ 151211
127▼ 102
Rushing yards
▼ 77113
22▼ 16
First downs
▼ 1219
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
▼ 02
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1▲ 4
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2▲ 3
Sacks allowed
= 33
52▲ 63
Penalty yards
▲ 8751
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 325.5
Proj. 372
72%
Lost · 270
Passing yards
Over 203.5
Proj. 245
72%
Lost · 168
Rushing yards
Over 98.5
Proj. 127
72%
Won · 102
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
75%
Lost · 16
Total yards
Over 277.5
Proj. 324
72%
Lost · 228
Passing yards
Over 169.5
Proj. 211
72%
Lost · 151
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 113
72%
Lost · 77
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
73%
Lost · 12
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Lions
QB
Jared Goff23/32 · 245 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT
245pass yds
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs22 carries · 104 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 5 rec
104rush yds
WR/TE
Amon-Ra St. Brown7 rec · 75 yds · 0.5 TD
75rec yds
WR/TE
Jameson Williams4 rec · 58 yds · 0.8 TD
58rec yds
Dolphins
QB
Malik Willis20/32 · 211 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
211pass yds
RB
Ollie Gordon13 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
58rush yds
WR/TE
Malik Washington6 rec · 59 yds · 0.2 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Greg Dulcich5 rec · 55 yds · 0.0 TD
55rec yds
Road form. The Lions are 1-2 on the road this season, winning by 2.7 points a game.
Home form. The Dolphins are 0-3 at home, scoring 17.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at MIA +8.5 and is now MIA +6.5, a 2-point move toward the Dolphins.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Lions have won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins
Detroit LionsMiami Dolphins
5-2Record1-6
1-2 roadRoad / home0-3 home
W3StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
29.0Points per game16.7
25.7Points allowed25.9
+23
Point differentialseason to date
−64
5.9Yards per play5.1
264Passing yards / game167
131Rushing yards / game123
39%3rd-down conversion43%
67%Red-zone touchdowns56%
7Takeaways6
24Sacks9
4Turnovers9
6.3Yards per play4.9
315Passing yards / game173
92Rushing yards / game137
33%3rd-down conversion51%
75%Red-zone touchdowns63%
1Takeaways3
10Sacks3
0Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Lions’ road games with the Dolphins’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Lions
5-2
WLWWW
Wk 8Nov 1vs MIN
Vikings15Lions19
Vikings moneyline +154Lions moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs GB
Packers17Lions20
Packers moneyline +175Lions moneyline −208
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ ARI
Lions45Cardinals21
Lions moneyline −250Cardinals moneyline +191
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CAR
Lions26Panthers32
Lions moneyline −222Panthers moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs NYJ
Jets24Lions31
Jets moneyline +240Lions moneyline −323
WFINAL
Dolphins
1-6
LLLWL
Wk 8Nov 1vs NE
Patriots24Dolphins19
Patriots moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +275
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ NYJ
Dolphins28Jets25
Dolphins moneyline +175Jets moneyline −208
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CIN
Bengals31Dolphins24
Bengals moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +267
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ MIN
Dolphins10Vikings15
Dolphins moneyline +400Vikings moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs KC
Chiefs24Dolphins10
Chiefs moneyline −625Dolphins moneyline +440
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC North
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
LIONS
0
Wins
Avg. points27.0 – 31.0
Avg. total58.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
DOLPHINS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 8Ford Field
Dolphins31Lions27
Dolphins moneyline −189Lions moneyline +160
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (DET)−333−333
Moneyline (MIA)+255+255
Spread (MIA)+8.5down +6.5
Total48.5up 50
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Detroit Lions beat the Miami Dolphins 19–9 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET, at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens. The moneyline had the Lions at −333 and the Dolphins at +255.
Our model predicted a final score of Lions 23, Dolphins 20. Its picks: the Lions to win (−313), won; the Dolphins +13.5 (−278), won; under 56.5 points (−250), won. The best pick was the Lions to win, at 82% confidence.