Moneyline
DET MLodds down −256
Won 67%
The Lions win the game.
Confidence67%
Model58.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.4%
Edge−11.0
Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 7:34 PM ET
Lions vs Cardinals picks
3 picks · Lions by 3 · 37 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
ARI +11.5−263
Lost 85%
The Cardinals win, or lose by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model75.4%
SportsbooksOdds69.5%
Edge+5.9
Total
Under 61odds up −238
Lost 85%
The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them (exactly 61 is a push).
Confidence85%
Model73.8%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+3.9
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Lions37731020
Cardinals37071017
Most likely final scoresDET 20–17 ARI 0.7%DET 27–24 ARI 0.7%DET 23–20 ARI 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
LionsCardinals
Offense
366▲ 412
Total yards
▼ 327342
256▼ 249
Passing yards
▲ 271235
110▲ 163
Rushing yards
▼ 56107
21▲ 24
First downs
▼ 2022
Scoring
2▲ 6
Touchdowns
▲ 32
1▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▼ 01
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
0= 0
Fumbles lost
= 00
2▲ 3
Sacks allowed
▲ 53
50▼ 31
Penalty yards
▼ 4551
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 319.5
Proj. 366
72%
Won · 412
Passing yards
Over 214.5
Proj. 256
72%
Won · 249
Rushing yards
Over 81.5
Proj. 110
72%
Won · 163
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
73%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 295.5
Proj. 342
72%
Won · 327
Passing yards
Over 193.5
Proj. 235
72%
Won · 271
Rushing yards
Over 78.5
Proj. 107
72%
Lost · 56
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
75%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Lions
QB
Jared Goff22/34 · 256 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
256pass yds
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs21 carries · 95 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 5 rec
95rush yds
WR/TE
Amon-Ra St. Brown6 rec · 67 yds · 0.6 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
Sam LaPorta5 rec · 51 yds · 0.2 TD
51rec yds
Cardinals
QB
Jacoby Brissett26/38 · 235 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
235pass yds
RB
Jeremiyah Love13 carries · 59 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
59rush yds
WR/TE
Michael Wilson6 rec · 78 yds · 0.2 TD
78rec yds
WR/TE
Trey McBride8 rec · 73 yds · 0.3 TD
73rec yds
Road form. The Lions are 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 8.0 points a game.
Home form. The Cardinals are 0-1 at home, scoring 7.0 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Cardinals have lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Detroit LionsArizona Cardinals
Detroit LionsArizona Cardinals
2-2Record1-3
0-2 roadRoad / home0-1 home
L1StreakL3
7 daysRest7 days
29.8Points per game21.8
31.8Points allowed29.3
−8
Point differentialseason to date
−30
5.8Yards per play4.5
287Passing yards / game194
102Rushing yards / game101
39%3rd-down conversion39%
72%Red-zone touchdowns57%
4Takeaways7
15Sacks8
1Turnovers4
6.2Yards per play3.2
348Passing yards / game81
56Rushing yards / game70
35%3rd-down conversion25%
63%Red-zone touchdowns100%
0Takeaways1
5Sacks1
0Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Lions’ road games with the Cardinals’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Lions
2-2
WWLWL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CAR
Lions26Panthers32
Lions moneyline −222Panthers moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs NYJ
Jets24Lions31
Jets moneyline +240Lions moneyline −323
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 17@ BUF
Lions31Bills41
Lions moneyline +190Bills moneyline −244
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs NO
Saints30Lions31
Saints moneyline +255Lions moneyline −323
WF/OT
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ CHI
Lions19Bears16
Lions moneyline +142Bears moneyline −189
WFINAL
Cardinals
1-3
LWLLL
Wk 4Oct 4@ NYG
Cardinals24Giants36
Cardinals moneyline −139Giants moneyline +110
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ SF
Cardinals3049ers36
Cardinals moneyline +30049ers moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs SEA
Seahawks31Cardinals7
Seahawks moneyline −213Cardinals moneyline +170
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ LAC
Cardinals26Chargers14
Cardinals moneyline +360Chargers moneyline −500
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ LAR
Cardinals20Rams37
Cardinals moneyline +700Rams moneyline −1111
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC North
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
LIONS
1
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 13.0
Avg. total33.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
CARDINALS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2024 · Wk 3State Farm Stadium
Lions20Cardinals13
Lions moneyline −154Cardinals moneyline +125
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (DET)−250−250
Moneyline (ARI)+191+191
Spread (ARI)+5.5+5.5
Total54up 54.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Detroit Lions beat the Arizona Cardinals 45–21 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 4:25 PM ET, at State Farm Stadium, Glendale. The moneyline had the Lions at −250 and the Cardinals at +191.
Our model predicted a final score of Lions 20, Cardinals 17. Its picks: the Lions to win (−256), won; the Cardinals +11.5 (−263), lost; under 61 points (−238), lost. The best pick was the Cardinals +11.5, at 85% confidence.