MoneylineBest pick
TENN MLodds up −222
Won 84%
Tennessee wins the game.
Confidence84%
Model66.7%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge−0.4
Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 7, 9:44 PM ET
Kentucky vs Tennessee picks
3 picks · Tennessee by 14 · 56 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
TENN −5.5odds down −123
Won 70%
Tennessee wins by six points or more.
Confidence70%
Model52.1%
SportsbooksOdds51.2%
Edge+0.9
Total
Over 49.5odds up −112
Lost 74%
The two teams score 50 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model58.5%
SportsbooksOdds50.4%
Edge+8.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Kentucky77701421
Tennessee770211435
Most likely final scoresUK 21–35 TENN 0.5%UK 14–38 TENN 0.5%UK 28–35 TENN 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
KentuckyTennessee
Offense
332▲ 361
Total yards
▲ 389386
195▲ 224
Passing yards
▼ 149230
137= 137
Rushing yards
▲ 240156
19▲ 20
First downs
▼ 1422
Scoring
3▼ 0
Touchdowns
= 44
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
2▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 32
0▲ 2
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 3
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▼ 50
Penalty yards
▲ 6054
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 259.5
Proj. 332
72%
Won · 361
Passing yards
Over 137.5
Proj. 195
72%
Won · 224
Rushing yards
Over 85.5
Proj. 138
72%
Won · 137
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 313.5
Proj. 386
72%
Won · 389
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 231
72%
Lost · 149
Rushing yards
Over 103.5
Proj. 156
72%
Won · 240
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Lost · 14
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Kentucky
QB
Kenny Minchey20/30 · 195 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
195pass yds
RB
Jason Patterson8 carries · 40 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
40rush yds
WR/TE
Kenny Darby5 rec · 58 yds · 0.2 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Willie Rodriguez4 rec · 34 yds · 0.2 TD
34rec yds
Tennessee
QB
George MacIntyre16/23 · 190 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
190pass yds
RB
DeSean Bishop20 carries · 103 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 2 rec
103rush yds
WR/TE
Mike Matthews6 rec · 88 yds · 0.7 TD
88rec yds
WR/TE
Braylon Staley6 rec · 54 yds · 0.7 TD
54rec yds
Road form. Kentucky is 3-0 on the road this season, winning by 6.3 points a game.
Home form. Tennessee is 4-1 at home, scoring 33.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at TENN −5.5 and is now TENN −6.5, a 1-point move toward Tennessee.
Rest. Both teams come in on 14 days’ rest.
Streak. Kentucky has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
KentuckyTennessee
KentuckyTennessee
7-1Record6-2
3-0 roadRoad / home4-1 home
W6StreakL1
14 daysRest14 days
32.9Points per game32.3
24.8Points allowed16.3
+65
Point differentialseason to date
+128
219Passing yards / game182
167Rushing yards / game213
34%3rd-down conversion37%
18Takeaways14
0Sacks0
5Turnovers11
227Passing yards / game184
117Rushing yards / game211
34%3rd-down conversion33%
8Takeaways10
0Sacks0
0Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kentucky’s road games with Tennessee’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Kentucky
7-1
WWWWW
Wk 8Oct 24vs VAN
Vanderbilt17Kentucky34
Vanderbilt moneyline +360Kentucky moneyline −500
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ OU
Kentucky21Oklahoma13
Kentucky moneyline +205Oklahoma moneyline −270
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs LSU
LSU34Kentucky35
LSU moneyline −385Kentucky moneyline +236
WF/OT
Wk 5Oct 3@ SC
Kentucky35South Carolina34
Kentucky moneyline +111South Carolina moneyline −149
WF/OT
Wk 4Sep 26vs USA
South Alabama21Kentucky45
South Alabama moneyline +720Kentucky moneyline −2000
WFINAL
Tennessee
6-2
LWWWL
Wk 8Oct 24@ SC
Tennessee24South Carolina27
Tennessee moneyline +108South Carolina moneyline −141
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs ALA
Alabama10Tennessee26
Alabama moneyline −313Tennessee moneyline +245
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ ARK
Tennessee24Arkansas17
Tennessee moneyline −625Arkansas moneyline +410
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs AUB
Auburn14Tennessee24
Auburn moneyline +185Tennessee moneyline −244
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs TEX
Texas20Tennessee17
Texas moneyline −208Tennessee moneyline +160
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSEC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
KENTUCKY
0
Wins
Avg. points34.0 – 56.0
Avg. total90.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
TENNESSEE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Kroger Field
Kentucky34Tennessee56
Kentucky moneyline −323Tennessee moneyline +230
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UK)+185+185
Moneyline (TENN)−227−227
Spread (TENN)−5.5down −6.5
Total50.5down 49
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Tennessee beat Kentucky 34–6 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 6:15 PM ET. The moneyline had Kentucky at +185 and Tennessee at −227.
Our model predicted a final score of Kentucky 21, Tennessee 35. Its picks: Tennessee to win (−222), won; Tennessee −5.5 (−123), won; over 49.5 points (−112), lost. The best pick was Tennessee to win, at 84% confidence.