Kentucky vs Oklahoma Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UK	7	0	0	14	21
OU	3	7	3	0	13

Kentucky vs Oklahoma picks

3 picks · Oklahoma by 28 · 42 points · 0 of 3 won

Moneyline

OU ML−286 Lost 94%

Oklahoma wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model69.5% SportsbooksOdds71.4% Edge−1.9

SpreadBest pick

OU +1.5odds up −270 Lost 77%

Oklahoma wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model71.5% SportsbooksOdds71.0% Edge+0.5

Total

Over 36.5odds up −244 Lost 74%

The two teams score 37 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model72.4% SportsbooksOdds70.4% Edge+2.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Kentucky000707

Oklahoma147772135

Most likely final scoresUK 7–35 OU 0.6%UK 21–28 OU 0.6%UK 21–24 OU 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

KentuckyOklahoma

Offense

304▼ 230 Total yards ▼ 346357

187▼ 158 Passing yards ▲ 270238

117▼ 72 Rushing yards ▼ 76119

16▼ 14 First downs = 1919

Scoring

1▲ 3 Touchdowns ▼ 14

0▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

0= 0 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 41

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▲ 41

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

48▼ 32 Penalty yards ▼ 3153

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 231.5 Proj. 304 72% Lost · 230

Passing yards Over 130.5 Proj. 188 72% Won · 158

Rushing yards Over 64.5 Proj. 117 72% Won · 72

First downs Over 12.5 Proj. 16 70% Won · 14

Total yards Over 284.5 Proj. 357 72% Won · 346

Passing yards Over 180.5 Proj. 238 72% Won · 270

Rushing yards Over 66.5 Proj. 119 72% Won · 76

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Kentucky

QB Kenny Minchey17/28 · 187 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.7 INT 187pass yds

RB CJ Baxter Jr.14 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Kenny Darby4 rec · 54 yds · 0.0 TD 54rec yds

WR/TE Willie Rodriguez4 rec · 29 yds · 0.0 TD 29rec yds

Oklahoma

QB John Mateer21/32 · 236 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 236pass yds

RB Lloyd Avant11 carries · 59 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 2 rec 59rush yds

WR/TE Isaiah Sategna6 rec · 75 yds · 0.5 TD 75rec yds

WR/TE Rocky Beers5 rec · 65 yds · 0.5 TD 65rec yds

Road form. Kentucky is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 5.5 points a game.

Home form. Oklahoma is 3-0 at home, scoring 30.7 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 42.5 and is now 43.5.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Kentucky has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

KentuckyOklahoma

5-1Record3-2

2-0 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W4StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

34.7Points per game23.0

28.0Points allowed17.6

+40 Point differentialseason to date +27

232Passing yards / game209

182Rushing yards / game96

27%3rd-down conversion30%

12Takeaways6

0Sacks0

5Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Kentucky’s road games with Oklahoma’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.