Moneyline
KC ML−500
Won 94%
The Chiefs win the game.
Confidence94%
Model76.9%
SportsbooksOdds81.9%
Edge−5.0
New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 4:17 PM ET
Jets vs Chiefs picks
3 picks · Chiefs by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
NYJ +16.5−250
Lost 78%
The Jets win, or lose by 16 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model65.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge−3.1
Total
Under 52.5odds up −208
Won 77%
The two teams score 52 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model72.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+4.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Jets37071017
Chiefs014331420
Most likely final scoresNYJ 17–20 KC 0.9%NYJ 24–27 KC 0.8%NYJ 17–23 KC 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
JetsChiefs
Offense
300▼ 229
Total yards
▲ 391360
201▼ 123
Passing yards
▼ 228231
99▲ 106
Rushing yards
▲ 163129
18▼ 15
First downs
▲ 2721
Scoring
2▼ 0
Touchdowns
▲ 52
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▲ 4
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
2▲ 5
Sacks allowed
= 22
51▲ 57
Penalty yards
▼ 2052
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 253.5
Proj. 300
72%
Lost · 229
Passing yards
Over 159.5
Proj. 201
72%
Lost · 123
Rushing yards
Over 70.5
Proj. 100
72%
Won · 106
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
70%
Lost · 15
Total yards
Over 313.5
Proj. 360
72%
Won · 391
Passing yards
Over 189.5
Proj. 231
72%
Won · 228
Rushing yards
Over 100.5
Proj. 129
72%
Won · 163
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 21
71%
Won · 27
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Jets
QB
Geno Smith20/32 · 201 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
201pass yds
RB
Braelon Allen18 carries · 83 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec
83rush yds
WR/TE
Garrett Wilson5 rec · 61 yds · 0.2 TD
61rec yds
WR/TE
Mason Taylor4 rec · 30 yds · 0.3 TD
30rec yds
Chiefs
QB
Patrick Mahomes21/31 · 231 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
231pass yds
RB
Kenneth Walker III24 carries · 107 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec
107rush yds
WR/TE
Travis Kelce4 rec · 50 yds · 0.2 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Xavier Worthy4 rec · 31 yds · 0.1 TD
31rec yds
Road form. The Jets are 1-3 on the road this season, losing by 3.0 points a game.
Home form. The Chiefs are 3-0 at home, scoring 28.7 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 43.5 and is now 47.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Jets have lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
New York JetsKansas City Chiefs
New York JetsKansas City Chiefs
2-6Record5-2
1-3 roadRoad / home3-0 home
L3StreakL2
7 daysRest7 days
21.3Points per game23.9
23.5Points allowed18.7
−18
Point differentialseason to date
+36
5.5Yards per play6.3
215Passing yards / game249
105Rushing yards / game134
38%3rd-down conversion40%
42%Red-zone touchdowns58%
8Takeaways10
20Sacks9
6Turnovers5
5.5Yards per play6.6
204Passing yards / game272
92Rushing yards / game174
27%3rd-down conversion43%
36%Red-zone touchdowns50%
5Takeaways5
6Sacks8
2Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Jets’ road games with the Chiefs’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Jets
2-6
LWLLL
Wk 8Nov 1vs LV
Raiders38Jets33
Raiders moneyline +111Jets moneyline −132
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs MIA
Dolphins28Jets25
Dolphins moneyline +175Jets moneyline −208
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ NE
Jets19Patriots26
Jets moneyline +280Patriots moneyline −357
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CLE
Browns12Jets17
Browns moneyline +121Jets moneyline −149
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CHI
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
LFINAL
Chiefs
5-2
WWWLL
Wk 8Nov 1@ DEN
Chiefs24Broncos28
Chiefs moneyline −116Broncos moneyline −104
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ SEA
Chiefs3Seahawks20
Chiefs moneyline +140Seahawks moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs LAC
Chargers6Chiefs22
Chargers moneyline +330Chiefs moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ LV
Chiefs30Raiders27
Chiefs moneyline −227Raiders moneyline +185
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ MIA
Chiefs24Dolphins10
Chiefs moneyline −625Dolphins moneyline +440
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC East
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
JETS
0
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 23.0
Avg. total43.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
CHIEFS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 4MetLife Stadium
Chiefs23Jets20
Chiefs moneyline −435Jets moneyline +335
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NYJ)+370+370
Moneyline (KC)−500−500
Spread (KC)−9.5−9.5
Total43.5up 47.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the New York Jets 35–12 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET, at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City. The moneyline had the Jets at +370 and the Chiefs at −500.
Our model predicted a final score of Jets 17, Chiefs 20. Its picks: the Chiefs to win (−500), won; the Jets +16.5 (−250), lost; under 52.5 points (−208), won. The best pick was the Jets +16.5, at 78% confidence.