Moneyline
JMU MLodds up −625
Won 79%
James Madison wins the game.
Confidence79%
Model60.6%
SportsbooksOdds86.5%
Edge−25.9
James Madison vs Southern Miss prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMU | 10 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 54 |
| USM | 0 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 23 |
JAMES MADISON 85%
Pre-game win chance
15% SOUTHERN MISS
JMU by 28 · 42 points
Updated Nov 5, 11:56 PM ET
James Madison vs Southern Miss picks
3 picks · James Madison by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
JMU −6.5odds up −238
Won 74%
James Madison wins by seven points or more.
Confidence74%
Model56.9%
SportsbooksOdds70.5%
Edge−13.6
Total
Under 65.5odds down −263
Lost 74%
The two teams score 65 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model56.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge−12.6
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
James Madison7140142135
Southern Miss070077
Most likely final scoresJMU 35–7 USM 0.7%JMU 38–14 USM 0.6%JMU 42–14 USM 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
James MadisonSouthern Miss
Offense
453▲ 498
Total yards
▲ 354351
236▲ 323
Passing yards
▲ 266221
217▼ 175
Rushing yards
▼ 88130
22▲ 27
First downs
▲ 2019
Scoring
5▲ 6
Touchdowns
▲ 31
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 10
3▲ 4
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
66▲ 91
Penalty yards
▲ 9161
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 380.5
Proj. 453
72%
Won · 498
Passing yards
Over 179.5
Proj. 237
72%
Won · 323
Rushing yards
Over 164.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 175
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 23
74%
Won · 27
Total yards
Over 278.5
Proj. 351
72%
Won · 354
Passing yards
Over 164.5
Proj. 221
72%
Won · 266
Rushing yards
Over 77.5
Proj. 130
72%
Won · 88
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
James Madison
QB
Camden Coleman17/28 · 190 pass yds · 1.5 TD · 0.6 INT
190pass yds
RB
Seth Cromwell11 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
48rush yds
WR/TE
Michael Scott3 rec · 43 yds · 0.2 TD
43rec yds
WR/TE
Jeremiah Harrison3 rec · 34 yds · 0.2 TD
34rec yds
Southern Miss
QB
Landry Lyddy18/32 · 190 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.5 INT
190pass yds
RB
Steven Robinson18 carries · 74 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
74rush yds
WR/TE
Mario Sanders II6 rec · 68 yds · 0.0 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Kaden Saunders3 rec · 32 yds · 0.0 TD
32rec yds
Road form. James Madison is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 9.8 points a game.
Home form. Southern Miss is 2-2 at home, scoring 29.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at USM +12.5 and is now USM +13.5, a 1-point move toward James Madison.
Rest. James Madison comes in on 7 days’ rest, Southern Miss on 5.
Tale of the tape
James MadisonSouthern Miss
James MadisonSouthern Miss
7-2Record3-5
3-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home
L2StreakW2
7 daysRest5 days
39.1Points per game26.9
18.9Points allowed31.0
+182
Point differentialseason to date
−33
249Passing yards / game232
202Rushing yards / game167
37%3rd-down conversion31%
13Takeaways10
0Sacks0
11Turnovers11
262Passing yards / game224
159Rushing yards / game197
27%3rd-down conversion33%
6Takeaways6
0Sacks0
3Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares James Madison’s road games with Southern Miss’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
James Madison
7-2
WWWLL
Wk 9Oct 29vs TROY
Troy24James Madison21
Troy moneyline +750James Madison moneyline −1429
LF/OT
Wk 8Oct 22@ APP
James Madison31App State34
James Madison moneyline −588App State moneyline +365
LF/OT
Wk 7Oct 17vs GAST
Georgia St22James Madison49
Georgia St moneyline +275James Madison moneyline −370
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ GASO
James Madison27GA Southern24
James Madison moneyline −294GA Southern moneyline +230
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs MRSH
Marshall17James Madison45
Marshall moneyline +480James Madison moneyline −909
WFINAL
Southern Miss
3-5
LLLWW
Wk 9Oct 31@ ULM
Southern Miss35UL Monroe21
Southern Miss moneyline −175UL Monroe moneyline +133
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs ULL
Louisiana31Southern Miss35
Louisiana moneyline −556Southern Miss moneyline +360
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs ARST
Arkansas St23Southern Miss13
Arkansas St moneyline −233Southern Miss moneyline +185
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 6@ TROY
Southern Miss34Troy55
Southern Miss moneyline +285Troy moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TULN
Southern Miss21Tulane24
Southern Miss moneyline +580Tulane moneyline −1429
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSun Belt East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Sun Belt West
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (JMU)−714up −667
Moneyline (USM)+480down +460
Spread (USM)+12.5up +13.5
Total55.5up 58.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
James Madison beat Southern Miss 54–23 in college football Week 10, on Thursday, November 5 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had James Madison at −667 and Southern Miss at +460.
Our model predicted a final score of James Madison 35, Southern Miss 7. Its picks: James Madison to win (−625), won; James Madison −6.5 (−238), won; under 65.5 points (−263), lost. The best pick was James Madison −6.5, at 74% confidence.