Moneyline
JAX MLodds up −476
Won 85%
The Jaguars win the game.
Confidence85%
Model67.8%
SportsbooksOdds82.0%
Edge−14.2
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 5, 11:11 PM ET
Jaguars vs Ravens picks
3 picks · Jaguars by 3 · 43 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
BAL +16.5−250
Lost 80%
The Ravens win, or lose by 16 points or fewer.
Confidence80%
Model75.2%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge+7.2
TotalBest pick
Over 36.5odds up −175
Won 77%
The two teams score 37 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model74.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.5%
Edge+4.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Jaguars515302023
Ravens03143320
Most likely final scoresJAX 23–20 BAL 0.9%JAX 20–17 BAL 0.8%JAX 27–24 BAL 0.7%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
JaguarsRavens
Offense
347▼ 319
Total yards
▼ 227324
235▲ 242
Passing yards
▼ 55217
112▼ 77
Rushing yards
▲ 172107
20▼ 16
First downs
▼ 1018
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▼ 12
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 4
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 31
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▲ 21
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▼ 0
Sacks allowed
▼ 12
54▼ 24
Penalty yards
▼ 4653
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 347
72%
Won · 319
Passing yards
Over 193.5
Proj. 235
72%
Won · 242
Rushing yards
Over 83.5
Proj. 112
72%
Lost · 77
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
71%
Lost · 16
Total yards
Over 277.5
Proj. 324
72%
Lost · 227
Passing yards
Over 175.5
Proj. 217
72%
Lost · 55
Rushing yards
Over 78.5
Proj. 107
72%
Won · 172
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
73%
Lost · 10
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Jaguars
QB
Trevor Lawrence20/31 · 235 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
235pass yds
RB
Bhayshul Tuten16 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Parker Washington4 rec · 60 yds · 0.5 TD
60rec yds
WR/TE
Brenton Strange5 rec · 54 yds · 0.0 TD
54rec yds
Ravens
QB
Joe Fagnano17/25 · 217 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.8 INT
217pass yds
RB
Derrick Henry18 carries · 59 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
59rush yds
WR/TE
Zay Flowers6 rec · 88 yds · 0.3 TD
88rec yds
WR/TE
Justice Hill3 rec · 19 yds · 0.0 TD
19rec yds
Road form. The Jaguars are 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 1.0 points a game.
Home form. The Ravens are 1-2 at home, scoring 18.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at BAL −2.5 and is now BAL +9.5, a 12-point move toward the Jaguars.
Rest. Both teams come in on 4 days’ rest.
Streak. The Ravens have lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Jacksonville JaguarsBaltimore Ravens
Jacksonville JaguarsBaltimore Ravens
5-2Record4-4
1-1 roadRoad / home1-2 home
W1StreakL3
4 daysRest4 days
28.0Points per game22.4
15.9Points allowed25.4
+85
Point differentialseason to date
−24
5.9Yards per play5.6
227Passing yards / game205
123Rushing yards / game134
48%3rd-down conversion39%
68%Red-zone touchdowns59%
12Takeaways8
15Sacks17
5Turnovers8
5.4Yards per play5.8
193Passing yards / game251
103Rushing yards / game101
43%3rd-down conversion43%
50%Red-zone touchdowns50%
3Takeaways2
2Sacks5
1Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Jaguars’ road games with the Ravens’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Jaguars
5-2
WWWLW
Wk 8Nov 1vs IND
Colts7Jaguars42
Colts moneyline +390Jaguars moneyline −526
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs HOU
Texans34Jaguars31
Texans moneyline +122Jaguars moneyline −145
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs PHI
Eagles17Jaguars19
Eagles moneyline +310Jaguars moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CIN
Jaguars22Bengals17
Jaguars moneyline +116Bengals moneyline −149
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs NE
Patriots6Jaguars35
Patriots moneyline +132Jaguars moneyline −156
WFINAL
Ravens
4-4
WWLLL
Wk 8Nov 1@ BUF
Ravens10Bills36
Ravens moneyline +147Bills moneyline −175
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs CIN
Bengals35Ravens13
Bengals moneyline −154Ravens moneyline +130
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ CLE
Ravens10Browns13
Ravens moneyline −169Browns moneyline +144
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ ATL
Ravens30Falcons23
Ravens moneyline +145Falcons moneyline −175
WF/OT
Wk 4Oct 4vs TEN
Titans18Ravens24
Titans moneyline +525Ravens moneyline −769
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC South
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
JAGUARS
1
Wins
Avg. points17.5 – 25.0
Avg. total42.5 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
1
RAVENS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2023 · Wk 15EverBank Stadium
Ravens23Jaguars7
Ravens moneyline −213Jaguars moneyline +176
2022 · Wk 12TIAA Bank Field
Ravens27Jaguars28
Ravens moneyline −167Jaguars moneyline +140
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (JAX)−500−500
Moneyline (BAL)+375+375
Spread (BAL)−2.5up +9.5
Total48.5down 40
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Baltimore Ravens 33–10 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season (Thursday Night Football on Prime Video), on Thursday, November 5 at 8:15 PM ET, at M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore. The moneyline had the Jaguars at −500 and the Ravens at +375.
Our model predicted a final score of Jaguars 23, Ravens 20. Its picks: the Jaguars to win (−476), won; the Ravens +16.5 (−250), lost; over 36.5 points (−175), won. The best pick was over 36.5 points, at 77% confidence.