Georgia State vs Arkansas State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
GAST	0	14	7	11	32
ARST	7	7	14	10	38

Georgia St vs Arkansas St picks

3 picks · Arkansas St by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

ARST MLodds up +108 Won 69%

Arkansas St wins the game.

Confidence69%

Model56.5% SportsbooksOdds46.3% Edge+10.2

SpreadBest pick

ARST +7.5odds up −250 Won 78%

Arkansas St wins, or loses by seven points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model76.7% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+7.5

Total

Under 66.5odds down −263 Lost 74%

The two teams score 66 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model75.7% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+7.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Georgia St0777721

Arkansas St014771428

Most likely final scoresGAST 21–28 ARST 0.6%GAST 28–31 ARST 0.6%GAST 21–24 ARST 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Georgia StArkansas St

Offense

389▲ 429 Total yards ▲ 469376

210▲ 228 Passing yards ▲ 309228

179▲ 201 Rushing yards ▲ 160148

20= 20 First downs ▲ 2421

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns ▲ 54

1▲ 3 Passing touchdowns = 22

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

59▼ 56 Penalty yards ▲ 5552

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 316.5 Proj. 390 72% Won · 429

Passing yards Over 152.5 Proj. 210 72% Won · 228

Rushing yards Over 127.5 Proj. 180 72% Won · 201

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 20

Total yards Over 302.5 Proj. 376 72% Won · 469

Passing yards Over 170.5 Proj. 228 72% Won · 309

Rushing yards Over 95.5 Proj. 148 72% Won · 160

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Georgia St

QB Cameran Brown16/25 · 183 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT 183pass yds

RB Lanear McCrary Jr.12 carries · 56 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 56rush yds

WR/TE Rodshaun Dorsey3 rec · 47 yds · 0.5 TD 47rec yds

WR/TE DJ Riles3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD 34rec yds

Arkansas St

QB Trey Owens19/30 · 228 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 228pass yds

RB Solomon Baggett11 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Hunter Summers4 rec · 56 yds · 0.8 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Chauncy Cobb4 rec · 49 yds · 0.3 TD 49rec yds

Road form. Georgia St is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 9.0 points a game.

Home form. Arkansas St is 2-1 at home, scoring 39.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ARST +1.5 and is now ARST +2.5, a 1-point move toward Georgia St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Georgia StateArkansas State

4-2Record3-4

1-2 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L1StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

36.5Points per game27.4

24.0Points allowed26.6

+75 Point differentialseason to date +6

247Passing yards / game233

206Rushing yards / game133

48%3rd-down conversion45%

6Takeaways11

0Sacks0

10Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Georgia St’s road games with Arkansas St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.