Moneyline
FRES MLodds up −111
Lost 54%
Fresno St wins the game.
Confidence54%
Model51.2%
SportsbooksOdds54.4%
Edge−3.2
Fresno State vs Utah State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
| USU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
FRESNO ST 51%
Pre-game win chance
49% UTAH STATE
FRES by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 8, 12:58 AM ET
Fresno St vs Utah State picks
3 picks · Fresno St by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
USU +7.5odds down −323
Won 77%
Utah State wins, or loses by seven points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model70.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+0.6
Total
Over 35.5odds down −313
Lost 74%
The two teams score 36 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model75.3%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge+6.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Fresno St014771428
Utah State07014721
Most likely final scoresFRES 28–21 USU 0.6%FRES 24–21 USU 0.5%FRES 31–28 USU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Fresno StUtah State
Offense
344▼ 278
Total yards
▼ 269373
209▲ 262
Passing yards
▼ 117204
135▼ 16
Rushing yards
▼ 152169
19▼ 15
First downs
▼ 1519
Scoring
3▼ 1
Touchdowns
= 22
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
2▼ 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
49▲ 52
Penalty yards
▼ 3156
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 271.5
Proj. 344
72%
Won · 278
Passing yards
Over 152.5
Proj. 209
72%
Won · 262
Rushing yards
Over 82.5
Proj. 135
72%
Lost · 16
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
71%
Lost · 15
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 373
72%
Lost · 269
Passing yards
Over 147.5
Proj. 204
72%
Lost · 117
Rushing yards
Over 116.5
Proj. 169
72%
Won · 152
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
73%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Fresno St
QB
Jayden Mandal20/32 · 195 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.0 INT
195pass yds
RB
Bryson Donelson10 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 1 rec
41rush yds
WR/TE
Josiah Freeman5 rec · 63 yds · 0.2 TD
63rec yds
WR/TE
Ezekiel Avit4 rec · 54 yds · 0.4 TD
54rec yds
Utah State
QB
McCae Hillstead10/17 · 114 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.8 INT
114pass yds
RB
Javen Jacobs13 carries · 87 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
87rush yds
WR/TE
Anthony Garcia6 rec · 65 yds · 0.0 TD
65rec yds
WR/TE
Javon Robinson3 rec · 34 yds · 0.2 TD
34rec yds
Road form. Fresno St is 2-2 on the road this season, losing by 1.5 points a game.
Home form. Utah State is 3-1 at home, scoring 21.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at USU +2.5 and is now USU −0.5, a 3-point move toward Utah State.
Rest. Fresno St comes in on 8 days’ rest, Utah State on 7.
Tale of the tape
Fresno StateUtah State
Fresno StateUtah State
5-3Record3-5
2-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W1StreakW1
8 daysRest7 days
28.9Points per game16.9
21.0Points allowed21.9
+63
Point differentialseason to date
−40
186Passing yards / game196
123Rushing yards / game130
36%3rd-down conversion39%
12Takeaways9
0Sacks0
4Turnovers12
162Passing yards / game214
118Rushing yards / game167
30%3rd-down conversion45%
9Takeaways7
0Sacks0
4Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Fresno St’s road games with Utah State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Fresno St
5-3
WWLLW
Wk 9Oct 30vs ORST
Oregon St22Fresno St38
Oregon St moneyline −250Fresno St moneyline +180
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ SDSU
Fresno St23San Diego St26
Fresno St moneyline −333San Diego St moneyline +255
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs BSU
Boise St38Fresno St31
Boise St moneyline −345Fresno St moneyline +213
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ WSU
Fresno St26Washington St6
Fresno St moneyline +101Washington St moneyline −130
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs RICE
Rice24Fresno St38
Rice moneyline +400Fresno St moneyline −625
WFINAL
Utah State
3-5
WLWLW
Wk 9Oct 31vs CSU
Colorado St14Utah State31
Colorado St moneyline +250Utah State moneyline −345
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ TXST
Utah State17Texas St20
Utah State moneyline +390Texas St moneyline −556
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs WSU
Washington St16Utah State17
Washington St moneyline +145Utah State moneyline −182
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ BSU
Utah State18Boise St37
Utah State moneyline +660Boise St moneyline −1667
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs TROY
Troy10Utah State21
Troy moneyline +112Utah State moneyline −149
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
FRESNO ST
0
Wins
Avg. points17.0 – 28.0
Avg. total45.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
UTAH STATE
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 13Fresno St home
Utah State28Fresno St17
Utah State moneyline +102Fresno St moneyline −135
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FRES)−102−102
Moneyline (USU)−122−122
Spread (USU)+2.5down −0.5
Total41.5up 44.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Utah State beat Fresno State 17–10 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 9:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Fresno State at −102 and Utah State at −122.
Our model predicted a final score of Fresno St 28, Utah State 21. Its picks: Fresno State to win (−111), lost; Utah State +7.5 (−323), won; over 35.5 points (−313), lost. The best pick was Utah State +7.5, at 77% confidence.