MoneylineBest pick
FRES MLodds up −323
Lost 77%
Fresno St wins the game.
Confidence77%
Model60.1%
SportsbooksOdds74.5%
Edge−14.4
Fresno State vs San Diego State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 0 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 23 |
| SDSU | 10 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 26 |
FRESNO ST 60%
Pre-game win chance
40% SAN DIEGO ST
FRES by 7 · 35 points
Updated Oct 18, 1:53 AM ET
Fresno St vs San Diego St picks
3 picks · Fresno St by 7 · 35 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
SDSU +16.5odds down −313
Won 84%
San Diego St wins, or loses by 16 points or fewer.
Confidence84%
Model76.7%
SportsbooksOdds69.9%
Edge+6.8
Total
Under 54.5odds down −294
Won 74%
The two teams score 54 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.1%
SportsbooksOdds70.5%
Edge−1.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Fresno St014701421
San Diego St7007714
Most likely final scoresFRES 21–14 SDSU 0.6%FRES 28–21 SDSU 0.6%FRES 24–21 SDSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Fresno StSan Diego St
Offense
387▼ 276
Total yards
▲ 384323
237▼ 141
Passing yards
▲ 180168
150▼ 135
Rushing yards
▲ 204155
20▼ 18
First downs
= 1717
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
= 22
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1▲ 3
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
50▼ 25
Penalty yards
▼ 3552
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 314.5
Proj. 387
72%
Lost · 276
Passing yards
Over 179.5
Proj. 237
72%
Lost · 141
Rushing yards
Over 98.5
Proj. 150
72%
Won · 135
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 249.5
Proj. 323
72%
Won · 384
Passing yards
Over 110.5
Proj. 168
72%
Won · 180
Rushing yards
Over 102.5
Proj. 155
72%
Won · 204
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
71%
Won · 17
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Fresno St
QB
Jayden Mandal21/32 · 221 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT
221pass yds
RB
Bryson Donelson10 carries · 42 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
42rush yds
WR/TE
Josiah Freeman6 rec · 70 yds · 0.4 TD
70rec yds
WR/TE
Ezekiel Avit4 rec · 58 yds · 0.9 TD
58rec yds
San Diego St
QB
Jayden Denegal14/25 · 153 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.8 INT
153pass yds
RB
Josiah Lucas12 carries · 56 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
56rush yds
WR/TE
Nathan Acevedo3 rec · 39 yds · 0.3 TD
39rec yds
WR/TE
Jordan Napier3 rec · 14 yds · 0.0 TD
14rec yds
Road form. Fresno St is 2-1 on the road this season, losing by 1.0 points a game.
Home form. San Diego St is 2-1 at home, scoring 32.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at SDSU +8.5 and is now SDSU +6.5, a 2-point move toward San Diego St.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Fresno StateSan Diego State
Fresno StateSan Diego State
4-2Record2-4
2-1 roadRoad / home2-1 home
L1StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
28.3Points per game22.8
20.0Points allowed35.0
+50
Point differentialseason to date
−73
224Passing yards / game143
141Rushing yards / game135
37%3rd-down conversion27%
11Takeaways7
0Sacks0
3Turnovers9
169Passing yards / game158
112Rushing yards / game186
30%3rd-down conversion36%
8Takeaways6
0Sacks0
3Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Fresno St’s road games with San Diego St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Fresno St
4-2
WWWWL
Wk 6Oct 10vs BSU
Boise St38Fresno St31
Boise St moneyline −345Fresno St moneyline +213
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ WSU
Fresno St26Washington St6
Fresno St moneyline +101Washington St moneyline −130
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs RICE
Rice24Fresno St38
Rice moneyline +400Fresno St moneyline −625
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ SJSU
Fresno St26San Jose St10
Fresno St moneyline −213San Jose St moneyline +162
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs SAC
Sacramento St3Fresno St49
Sacramento St moneyline +660Fresno St moneyline −1429
WFINAL
San Diego St
2-4
LLLWL
Wk 6Oct 10@ ORST
San Diego St14Oregon St66
San Diego St moneyline +525Oregon St moneyline −833
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TXST
Texas St29San Diego St31
Texas St moneyline −417San Diego St moneyline +280
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TOL
San Diego St16Toledo41
San Diego St moneyline +112Toledo moneyline −147
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs JMU
James Madison26San Diego St13
James Madison moneyline +110San Diego St moneyline −141
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ UCLA
San Diego St10UCLA28
San Diego St moneyline +400UCLA moneyline −667
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gamePac-12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
FRESNO ST
0
Wins
Avg. points0.0 – 23.0
Avg. total23.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
SAN DIEGO ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Valley Children's Stadium
Fresno St0San Diego St23
Fresno St moneyline −167San Diego St moneyline +125
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FRES)−333−333
Moneyline (SDSU)+250up +255
Spread (SDSU)+8.5down +6.5
Total44.5up 46.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
San Diego State beat Fresno State 26–23 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 10:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Fresno State at −333 and San Diego State at +255.
Our model predicted a final score of Fresno St 21, San Diego St 14. Its picks: Fresno State to win (−323), lost; San Diego State +16.5 (−313), won; under 54.5 points (−294), won. The best pick was Fresno State to win, at 77% confidence.