Florida vs Texas Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FLA	0	10	7	10	27
TEX	10	7	0	7	24

Florida vs Texas picks

3 picks · Texas by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

TEX MLodds down −526 Lost 91%

Texas wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model77.1% SportsbooksOdds80.7% Edge−3.6

Spread

TEX −3.5odds down −263 Lost 79%

Texas wins by four points or more.

Confidence79%

Model68.3% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge−0.4

Total

Over 46odds up −208 Won 74%

The two teams score 47 or more points between them (exactly 46 is a push).

Confidence74%

Model68.1% SportsbooksOdds70.0% Edge−1.9

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Florida014071421

Texas0100181028

Most likely final scoresFLA 21–28 TEX 0.6%FLA 14–42 TEX 0.5%FLA 10–38 TEX 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

FloridaTexas

Offense

326▼ 313 Total yards ▼ 272403

204▼ 155 Passing yards ▼ 173259

122▲ 158 Rushing yards ▼ 99144

19▲ 21 First downs ▼ 1321

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▼ 34

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

61▼ 55 Penalty yards ▼ 1560

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 253.5 Proj. 326 72% Won · 313

Passing yards Over 147.5 Proj. 204 72% Won · 155

Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 122 72% Won · 158

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 69% Won · 21

Total yards Over 330.5 Proj. 403 72% Lost · 272

Passing yards Over 202.5 Proj. 260 72% Lost · 173

Rushing yards Over 91.5 Proj. 144 72% Won · 99

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74% Lost · 13

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Florida

QB Aaron Philo16/26 · 167 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.5 INT 167pass yds

RB Jadan Baugh16 carries · 68 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 2 rec 68rush yds

WR/TE Dallas Wilson4 rec · 47 yds · 0.3 TD 47rec yds

WR/TE Bailey Stockton4 rec · 32 yds · 0.2 TD 32rec yds

Texas

QB Arch Manning20/31 · 246 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 246pass yds

RB Raleek Brown10 carries · 44 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 2 rec 44rush yds

WR/TE Cam Coleman4 rec · 70 yds · 1.0 TD 70rec yds

WR/TE Ryan Wingo5 rec · 65 yds · 0.6 TD 65rec yds

Road form. Florida is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 11.5 points a game.

Home form. Texas is 3-0 at home, scoring 37.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at TEX −8.5 and is now TEX −12.5, a 4-point move toward Texas.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

FloridaTexas

4-2Record4-1

1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

L2StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

41.7Points per game31.4

29.0Points allowed16.0

+76 Point differentialseason to date +77

274Passing yards / game237

200Rushing yards / game142

46%3rd-down conversion45%

8Takeaways5

0Sacks0

7Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Florida’s road games with Texas’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.