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Florida vs Kentucky prediction, picks and odds

Back to the college football picks NCAA FBS picks Week 11 Saturday, November 14 · 6:15 PM ET
Florida
Away · 5-4ML odds down +145
6:15PM Kickoff Sat, Nov 14 · ET
Kentucky
ML odds up −182Home · 7-2
SpreadUK −3.5
Total52.5 points
Kickoff in3d 2h
Predictions3 Comparison Recent games Standings Head-to-head Odds
Updated 2:18 PM ET

Florida vs Kentucky picks

3 picks · Kentucky by 7 · 49 points
Moneyline
UK MLodds down −192 68%
Kentucky wins the game.
Confidence68%
Model56.3% SportsbooksOdds58.8% Edge−2.5
Spread
FLA +9.5odds up −238 79%
Florida wins, or loses by nine points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model68.6% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+0.3
TotalBest pick
Over 44.5odds down −270 77%
The two teams score 45 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model68.7% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge−0.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Florida77071421
Kentucky77771428
Most likely final scoresFLA 21–28 UK 0.6%FLA 28–31 UK 0.6%FLA 21–24 UK 0.5%
Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
FloridaKentucky

Offense

356 Total yards 369
223 Passing yards 219
133 Rushing yards 150
19 First downs 20

Scoring

3 Touchdowns 3
1 Passing touchdowns 1
2 Rushing touchdowns 2
0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1
1 Interceptions thrown 1
1 Fumbles lost 1
0 Sacks allowed 0
56 Penalty yards 47
Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards Over 282.5 Proj. 356 72%
Passing yards Over 166.5 Proj. 223 72%
Rushing yards Over 80.5 Proj. 133 72%
First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72%
Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 370 72%
Passing yards Over 162.5 Proj. 219 72%
Rushing yards Over 97.5 Proj. 150 72%
First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 73%
Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Florida
QB Tramell Jones Jr.11/18 · 124 pass yds · 0.6 TD · 0.6 INT 124pass yds
RB Jadan Baugh17 carries · 68 rush yds · 1.2 TD · 2 rec 68rush yds
WR/TE Bailey Stockton4 rec · 54 yds · 0.2 TD 54rec yds
WR/TE Eric Singleton Jr.3 rec · 23 yds · 0.0 TD 23rec yds
Kentucky
QB Kenny Minchey21/31 · 219 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT 219pass yds
RB Jason Patterson8 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec 41rush yds
WR/TE Kenny Darby5 rec · 67 yds · 0.1 TD 67rec yds
WR/TE Willie Rodriguez5 rec · 49 yds · 0.3 TD 49rec yds

Florida visits Kentucky in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 6:15 PM ET. Florida comes in at 5-4 and Kentucky at 7-2. The moneyline has Florida at +145 and Kentucky at −182.

Our model predicts a final score of Florida 21, Kentucky 28. Its picks: Kentucky to win (−192); Florida +9.5 (−238); over 44.5 points (−270). The best pick is over 44.5 points, at 77% confidence.