MoneylineBest pick
UGA MLodds down −500
Won 94%
Georgia wins the game.
Confidence94%
Model83.2%
SportsbooksOdds77.9%
Edge+5.3
Florida vs Georgia prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 31, 7:11 PM ET
Florida vs Georgia picks
3 picks · Georgia by 28 · 42 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
UGA −10.5odds down −130
Won 74%
Georgia wins by 11 points or more.
Confidence74%
Model60.1%
SportsbooksOdds48.8%
Edge+11.3
Total
Under 57.5odds up −127
Won 74%
The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model55.4%
SportsbooksOdds52.2%
Edge+3.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Florida007007
Georgia714772135
Most likely final scoresFLA 7–35 UGA 0.7%FLA 14–42 UGA 0.6%FLA 14–38 UGA 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
FloridaGeorgia
Offense
325▼ 246
Total yards
▼ 318422
205▼ 198
Passing yards
▼ 101261
120▼ 48
Rushing yards
▲ 217161
18▼ 15
First downs
▼ 1922
Scoring
1= 1
Touchdowns
▼ 24
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
0▲ 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
0= 0
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1▲ 4
Turnovers
= 11
1▲ 3
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
58▲ 78
Penalty yards
▼ 3250
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 251.5
Proj. 325
72%
Lost · 246
Passing yards
Over 147.5
Proj. 205
72%
Won · 198
Rushing yards
Over 67.5
Proj. 120
72%
Lost · 48
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
72%
Won · 15
Total yards
Over 349.5
Proj. 422
72%
Lost · 318
Passing yards
Over 203.5
Proj. 261
72%
Lost · 101
Rushing yards
Over 108.5
Proj. 161
72%
Won · 217
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Won · 19
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Florida
QB
Tramell Jones Jr.8/13 · 69 pass yds · 0.4 TD · 0.5 INT
69pass yds
RB
Jadan Baugh17 carries · 67 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec
67rush yds
WR/TE
Dallas Wilson4 rec · 50 yds · 0.3 TD
50rec yds
WR/TE
Bailey Stockton4 rec · 38 yds · 0.1 TD
38rec yds
Georgia
QB
Gunner Stockton19/26 · 235 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT
235pass yds
RB
Dwight Phillips Jr.7 carries · 47 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
47rush yds
WR/TE
Talyn Taylor3 rec · 51 yds · 0.3 TD
51rec yds
WR/TE
Craig Dandridge3 rec · 47 yds · 0.1 TD
47rec yds
Road form. Florida is 2-1 on the road this season, losing by 6.7 points a game.
Home form. Georgia is 4-1 at home, scoring 47.2 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at UGA −10.5 and is now UGA −11.5, a 1-point move toward Georgia.
Rest. Both teams come in on 14 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
FloridaGeorgia
FloridaGeorgia
5-2Record6-1
2-1 roadRoad / home4-1 home
W1StreakL1
14 daysRest14 days
39.6Points per game43.0
28.3Points allowed15.9
+79
Point differentialseason to date
+190
257Passing yards / game272
194Rushing yards / game198
45%3rd-down conversion54%
9Takeaways11
0Sacks0
7Turnovers8
230Passing yards / game289
148Rushing yards / game185
42%3rd-down conversion52%
2Takeaways9
0Sacks0
1Turnovers7
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Florida’s road games with Georgia’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Florida
5-2
WWLLW
Wk 7Oct 17@ TEX
Florida27Texas24
Florida moneyline +350Texas moneyline −476
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs SC
South Carolina38Florida19
South Carolina moneyline +360Florida moneyline −476
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ MIZ
Florida17Missouri45
Florida moneyline −233Missouri moneyline +170
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MISS
Ole Miss28Florida52
Ole Miss moneyline +147Florida moneyline −200
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ AUB
Florida44Auburn39
Florida moneyline −139Auburn moneyline +108
WFINAL
Georgia
6-1
WWWWL
Wk 7Oct 17vs AUB
Auburn27Georgia24
Auburn moneyline +600Georgia moneyline −1667
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10@ ALA
Georgia20Alabama17
Georgia moneyline +100Alabama moneyline −137
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs VAN
Vanderbilt14Georgia38
Vanderbilt moneyline +1300Georgia moneyline −5000
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs OU
Oklahoma13Georgia41
Oklahoma moneyline +380Georgia moneyline −625
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ ARK
Georgia45Arkansas17
Georgia moneyline −3333Arkansas moneyline +1000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameSEC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
FLORIDA
0
Wins
Avg. points20.0 – 24.0
Avg. total44.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
GEORGIA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 10Florida home
Georgia24Florida20
Georgia moneyline −303Florida moneyline +225
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (FLA)+350up +360
Moneyline (UGA)−526down −556
Spread (UGA)−10.5down −11.5
Total55.5up 56.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Georgia beat Florida 27–8 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Florida at +360 and Georgia at −556.
Our model predicted a final score of Florida 7, Georgia 35. Its picks: Georgia to win (−500), won; Georgia −10.5 (−130), won; under 57.5 points (−127), won. The best pick was Georgia to win, at 94% confidence.