Moneyline
DAL MLodds up −217
Won 55%
The Cowboys win the game.
Confidence55%
Model52.6%
SportsbooksOdds71.2%
Edge−18.6
Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts prediction, picks and odds
Updated Nov 8, 4:47 PM ET
Cowboys vs Colts picks
3 picks · Cowboys by 3 · 57 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
IND +11.5odds down −313
Won 80%
The Colts win, or lose by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence80%
Model75.5%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+6.9
TotalBest pick
Over 45.5odds up −233
Won 77%
The two teams score 46 or more points between them.
Confidence77%
Model66.7%
SportsbooksOdds67.2%
Edge−0.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Cowboys3101071330
Colts1070101727
Most likely final scoresDAL 30–27 IND 0.7%DAL 27–24 IND 0.7%DAL 34–27 IND 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
CowboysColts
Offense
335▲ 508
Total yards
▼ 271347
220▲ 329
Passing yards
▼ 166211
115▲ 179
Rushing yards
▼ 105136
20▲ 22
First downs
▼ 1521
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
3▼ 2
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▲ 2
Fumbles lost
= 11
2▲ 3
Sacks allowed
▼ 23
54▲ 153
Penalty yards
▲ 6754
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 288.5
Proj. 335
72%
Won · 508
Passing yards
Over 178.5
Proj. 220
72%
Won · 329
Rushing yards
Over 86.5
Proj. 115
72%
Won · 179
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
69%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 300.5
Proj. 347
72%
Lost · 271
Passing yards
Over 169.5
Proj. 211
72%
Lost · 166
Rushing yards
Over 107.5
Proj. 136
72%
Lost · 105
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 21
71%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Cowboys
QB
Dak Prescott20/32 · 220 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT
220pass yds
RB
Javonte Williams19 carries · 85 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec
85rush yds
WR/TE
CeeDee Lamb6 rec · 73 yds · 0.8 TD
73rec yds
WR/TE
Ryan Flournoy3 rec · 42 yds · 0.5 TD
42rec yds
Colts
QB
Daniel Jones21/33 · 211 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
211pass yds
RB
Jonathan Taylor17 carries · 80 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
80rush yds
WR/TE
Keenan Allen6 rec · 67 yds · 0.7 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
Josh Downs4 rec · 45 yds · 0.7 TD
45rec yds
Road form. The Cowboys are 2-2 on the road this season.
Home form. The Colts are 1-2 at home, scoring 20.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at IND +4.5 and is now IND +3.5, a 1-point move toward the Colts.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Colts have lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Dallas CowboysIndianapolis Colts
Dallas CowboysIndianapolis Colts
3-5Record2-6
2-2 roadRoad / home1-2 home
L1StreakL4
7 daysRest7 days
27.4Points per game20.1
26.6Points allowed27.8
+6
Point differentialseason to date
−61
5.3Yards per play4.5
248Passing yards / game175
94Rushing yards / game117
48%3rd-down conversion39%
72%Red-zone touchdowns59%
6Takeaways4
15Sacks16
7Turnovers15
5.2Yards per play4.7
242Passing yards / game198
99Rushing yards / game119
51%3rd-down conversion43%
75%Red-zone touchdowns60%
3Takeaways2
9Sacks5
3Turnovers8
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Cowboys’ road games with the Colts’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Cowboys
3-5
WLLWL
Wk 8Nov 1vs ARI
Cardinals33Cowboys30
Cardinals moneyline +280Cowboys moneyline −357
LF/OT
Wk 7Oct 26@ PHI
Cowboys38Eagles21
Cowboys moneyline −222Eagles moneyline +180
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ GB
Cowboys13Packers23
Cowboys moneyline −115Packers moneyline −105
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 8vs TB
Buccaneers24Cowboys16
Buccaneers moneyline +370Cowboys moneyline −526
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ HOU
Cowboys34Texans30
Cowboys moneyline +123Texans moneyline −152
WFINAL
Colts
2-6
WLLLL
Wk 8Nov 1@ JAX
Colts7Jaguars42
Colts moneyline +390Jaguars moneyline −526
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25@ MIN
Colts10Vikings16
Colts moneyline +270Vikings moneyline −345
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs TEN
Titans26Colts20
Titans moneyline +240Colts moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ PIT
Colts22Steelers34
Colts moneyline +131Steelers moneyline −161
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ WAS
Colts30Commanders13
Colts moneyline −227Commanders moneyline +175
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameNFC East
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
COWBOYS
1
Wins
Avg. points54.0 – 19.0
Avg. total73.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
COLTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 13AT&T Stadium
Colts19Cowboys54
Colts moneyline +420Cowboys moneyline −556
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (DAL)−244up −222
Moneyline (IND)+195down +175
Spread (IND)+4.5down +3.5
Total51.551.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Dallas Cowboys beat the Indianapolis Colts 27–23 in NFL Week 9 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 8 at 1:00 PM ET, at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis. The moneyline had the Cowboys at −222 and the Colts at +175.
Our model predicted a final score of Cowboys 30, Colts 27. Its picks: the Cowboys to win (−217), won; the Colts +11.5 (−313), won; over 45.5 points (−233), won. The best pick was over 45.5 points, at 77% confidence.